In the Rajya Sabha, Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged that the global order is undergoing structural change. For India, the challenge is not merely adapting to shifting geopolitics but redefining its national identity and diplomatic doctrine in an era where multilateral institutions are weakening and great power competition is intensifying.
The traditional framework of “strategic autonomy” — rooted in post-colonial solidarity and non-alignment — now faces the test of a transactional and technology-driven world order.
The Decline of Multilateralism
India’s post-Independence diplomacy was anchored in leadership of the Global South at the United Nations. Its diplomats played a central role in shaping negotiations on decolonisation, development, and climate justice. The normative architecture of global governance, even if Western-designed, offered developing countries a platform to negotiate collectively.
However, several shifts have eroded this framework:
- The rise of , which built alternative financial and security institutions and expanded its influence within UN agencies.
- The weakening of the dispute settlement system of the after the U.S. blocked appointments since 2019.
- The increasing resort to unilateral tariffs and transactional trade practices.
Multilateralism once offered India leverage through coalition-building. In a fragmented order, power is exercised more through technology, trade networks and military capabilities than through negotiated norms.
Strategic Autonomy: From Non-Alignment to Ambiguity
During the Cold War, India’s leadership of the Non-Aligned Movement reflected a conscious choice to avoid bloc politics. Strategic autonomy then meant preserving policy independence amid bipolar rivalry.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the doctrine evolved into a flexible principle used to justify diverse alignments — from joining the U.S.-led Quad framework to acquiring Russia’s S-400 missile system. India’s long-standing defence ties with Russia coexist with expanding technological and security cooperation with the United States.
Yet, as U.S.–China rivalry sharpens, analysts increasingly describe India as a “swing state” rather than an autonomous pole. Strategic autonomy, once a leadership doctrine, risks becoming reactive positioning.
From Rule-Based Order to Power Politics
International relations are witnessing a return to asymmetry. Trade reciprocity is increasingly framed in national interest terms, such as “America First,” signalling a departure from universal rule enforcement.
India faces complex trade pressures:
- Unilateral tariffs and trade imbalances in its relationship with the United States.
- Phased reciprocal tariff reductions in agreements with the European Union.
- The challenge of competing in a global economy where China is the largest trading partner of over 120 countries.
China’s rise was facilitated by exploiting multilateral trade rules to build manufacturing dominance. That window of opportunity may no longer be available to emerging economies like India.
Reframing Foreign Policy Around Development
If multilateralism is weakening, India’s foreign policy must align more closely with its developmental ambitions — often articulated domestically as “Viksit Bharat 2047.”
India’s comparative advantage lies in its demography and technological talent. Nearly half of Silicon Valley’s workforce traces roots to India, underscoring its potential to emerge as a digital and cyber power. Expanding artificial intelligence, semiconductor capacity, space technology and cybersecurity infrastructure can enhance both economic and strategic leverage.
This requires:
- Deep economic engagement with the United States for advanced technology and investment.
- Sustained defence and technological cooperation with Russia.
- Pragmatic economic engagement with China, while safeguarding national security.
- Expanded Free Trade Agreements across Asia and Africa, where future economic growth will concentrate.
Development-driven diplomacy may gradually replace abstract notions of autonomy.
Balancing Major Powers in the Asian Century
Asia is projected to account for two-thirds of global wealth in the coming decades. India’s diplomatic posture may require calibrated engagement rather than overt alignment.
A development-first strategy could involve:
- Diversifying exports beyond the U.S. market.
- Building regional supply chains in manufacturing and technology.
- Strengthening cooperation platforms such as for economic rather than purely political coordination.
- Exploring digital currency linkages to ease cross-border trade and financial flows.
Such steps would reduce vulnerability in a volatile global economy.
Revisiting Regional Diplomacy
India’s regional relationships also require recalibration. Viewing relations with Pakistan primarily through a security lens may constrain economic possibilities. Water-sharing arrangements, energy pipelines and trade agreements could generate mutual incentives for stability.
However, such initiatives demand political trust and security guarantees, which remain fragile.
The broader test for Indian diplomacy lies in balancing three imperatives simultaneously:
- Maintaining sovereignty amid great-power rivalry.
- Accelerating economic growth and technological advancement.
- Preserving regional stability in South Asia.
What to Note for Prelims?
- Objectives and history of the Non-Aligned Movement.
- Structure and role of the United Nations system.
- Functions and dispute settlement mechanism of the WTO.
- Composition and objectives of BRICS.
- Concept of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) in global finance (contextual understanding).
What to Note for Mains?
- Decline of multilateralism and implications for middle powers.
- Evolution of India’s strategic autonomy doctrine.
- Balancing development diplomacy with geopolitical competition.
- Impact of U.S.–China rivalry on India’s foreign policy choices.
- Need to integrate foreign policy with economic and technological strategy.
