The Changing Population Trends in India as Revealed by Economic Survey 2018-19
The Economic Survey 2018-19 has shed light on significant changes in India’s population growth dynamics. Surprisingly, the fertility rate in many areas of the country has reached a point that will result in a faster-than-expected decline in population growth. This trend is projected to continue, and India may reach a total fertility rate (TFR) below the replacement rate within the next two years.
Declining Total Fertility Rates
According to the survey, declining fertility in various parts of the country means that India’s population in the age bracket of 0-19 years has already reached its peak. This phenomenon is predominantly due to a sharp decrease in TFR across the country. The survey’s projected TFR values for the period 2021-41 suggest a continued fast-paced decline. It is predicted that the level will dip beneath the replacement level fertility rate of 1.8 as early as 2021.
Transitioning to an Aging Society
The survey also flags an impending challenge – managing an aging society. Some states are expected to begin this transition as soon as the 2030s. Nine states, namely Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh, are already reporting fertility rates well below the replacement rate.
Declining Population Growth in High-Population States
Interestingly, states traditionally known for high population growth rates like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Haryana are now also witnessing a decline in their population growth rate. The rate of population growth has decreased to less than 1% in the southern states and West Bengal, Punjab, Maharashtra, Odisha, Assam, and Himachal Pradesh. With India already grappling with high unemployment rates, this changing demographic may complicate the goal of realizing the aspirations of a New India.
Facts at a Glance: Fertility Rates and Population Growth
| States | Fertility Rates | Population Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh | Below replacement rate | Less than 1% |
| Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana | Declining | Declining |
| Odisha, Assam | N/A | Less than 1% |
Understanding Replacement Level Fertility
Replacement level fertility is a term used to define the total fertility rate – the average number of children born per woman – at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next without migration. The replacement rate is commonly identified as 2.1 children per woman for most countries. However, it may vary modestly according to mortality rates. For India, this value is predicted to drop below the benchmark as early as 2021, leading to significant demographic changes.
