A recent analysis by the Lancet has revealed that India’s population is predicted to peak at approximately 1.6 billion in 2048, up from 1.38 billion in 2017. This population boom will then be followed by a significant drop of 32%, collating to around 1.09 billion by 2100.
Data Used for The Study
The study has utilised data ascertained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, which offers a comprehensive global and regional assessment of mortality and disability rates from major diseases, injuries, and risk factors. Originated in the 1990s, this worldwide collaborative effort includes input from experts at leading global institutions such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank.
Economic Impact on Major Nations
The research predicts severe declines in working-age populations in key countries such as India and China, which may adversely affect economic growth and lead to shifts in global power structures.
India-Specific Data
By 2100, India will emerge as the world’s most populous country. However, the number of working-age adults between 20-64 years old is projected to drop from 762 million in 2017 to roughly 578 million in 2100. Despite this decrease, India is still expected to have the most extensive working-age population worldwide by 2100. The country is also forecasted to overtake China’s workforce population by the mid-2020s, with China’s working-age population estimated to diminish from 950 million in 2017 to 357 million in 2100.
India’s Economic Projections
From 2017 to 2100, India’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) globally is projected to ascend from 7th to 3rd in terms of nominal GDP. Also, the country’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declined to below 2.1 in 2019 and is projected to have continuous steep fertility decline until about 2040, reaching a TFR of 1.29 in 2100.
Forecast In Immigration
India is forecasted to have the second-largest net immigration by 2100, with approximately half a million more people immigrating to India than emigrating out.
Global Data
The world population is forecasted to peak at around 9.7 billion people in 2064 and fall to 8.8 billion by the end of the century. A total of 23 countries are expected to see populations shrink by over 50%, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain.
Challenges
These new population forecasts starkly contrast with projections of “continuing” global growth by the United Nations Population Division. They underscore significant challenges to economic growth posed by a shrinking workforce and the high burden on health and social support systems due to an aging population.
Suggestions
Temporary solutions for economic growth in the context of a declining working population include adopting liberal migration policies or investing in technological advancements to compensate for human shortages.
Way Forward
India is currently undergoing a demographic transition that could provide a golden opportunity for its rapid socio-economic development if policymakers align the developmental policies accordingly. However, this demographic shift also presents complex challenges which need to be tackled by focussing on education, skill development, and healthcare facilities. Learning from global approaches from countries such as Japan and Korea can aid India in designing solutions that consider domestic complexities and help to reap the benefits.
