The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) of India, under the Ministry of Power, recently released an updated version of a report titled “Optimal Generation Mix 2030 Version 2.0”. The document delineates anticipated fluctuations in India’s energy mix from now until 2030, indicating declining reliance on coal and rising dependence on renewable energy sources.
Key Findings: Anticipated Shifts in Energy Mix
According to the publication, coal’s stake in the power mix is expected to dwindle from 73% in 2022-23 to 55% in 2030. Despite the relative decrease in coal’s share, coal power capacity and generation will likely increase by 19% and 13% respectively during the same period.
The report forecasts a significant contribution from solar energy, predicting a quadrupling of solar capacity from 109 GW (Gigawatt) to 392 GW by 2030. Solar generation is also projected to surge from 173 BU (Billion Units) to 761 BU within the same timeframe.
Other Renewable Energy Sources: Modest Contributions Expected
Future power mix estimates for large hydropower and wind energy are moderate. Large hydropower is anticipated to rise from 8% to 9% by 2030, while wind generation is likely to decrease to 9%, down from 12% in the previous report.
The Role of Natural Gas in Power Generation: A Small Slice of the Energy Pie
While aspirations to bolster the contributions of natural gas exist, the actual estimations remain low. The report anticipates the retirement of 2,121.5 MW of coal plants by 2030, with 304 MW predicted to retire during 2022-23.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Commitments
With the power sector contributing approximately 40% of India’s total greenhouse gas emissions, these emissions are projected to rise by 11%, reaching 1.114 Gt CO2 in 2030. However, CEA’s projections also suggest that India is likely to exceed its Paris Agreement pledge—aiming for 50% of installed power capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030.
India’s Renewable Energy Targets
India has set ambitious targets for renewable energy generation, including an objective of 175 GW renewable energy capacity by 2022 and 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based energy by 2030. A significant part of the plan is leveraging solar and wind power, as India already ranks fourth globally in installed capacity for these two energy types.
About the Central Electricity Authority (CEA)
Established in 1951, the CEA is a statutory organization advising the Indian government on policy matters and formulating plans for electricity system development.
India’s Initiatives for Power Generation from Renewable Energy Sources
Various initiatives have been put in place to encourage the use of renewable energy in India. These include national missions for solar power, wind power, hydropower, and hydrogen energy. Large hydropower projects (>25 MW) are now classified as renewable energy sources, which makes them eligible for benefits such as waiver of inter-state transmission charges and renewable purchase obligation.
Challenges in Adopting Renewable Energy
While renewable energy sources have potential, they pose challenges such as intermittency due to weather conditions, complex integration into existing power grids, land and resource availability for installation, and transitioning from coal-dependent economies.
Despite these challenges, the move towards renewable energy is necessary for fulfilling India’s climate commitments and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of strategic policies and the development of technologies to overcome these barriers will be crucial for India’s energy transition.