India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2025 Asian tour marks a very important moment in Indian diplomacy. His visits to Tokyo and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin show India’s efforts to strengthen ties with Japan and cautiously engage China. This comes amid challenges in India’s relationship with the United States and complex regional dynamics involving Russia, China, and neighbouring countries.
India-US Trade Relations and Challenges
India’s main diplomatic challenge with the US in 2025 centres on trade disputes. India’s exports to the US reached $88 billion, far exceeding exports to Russia and China combined. Despite this, tensions persist over trade policies and tariffs. The US remains a vital economic partner, but disagreements have increased, affecting broader diplomatic ties.
Economic Vulnerabilities with China
India’s industrial sector remains vulnerable to China. Beijing’s bans on rare earth magnets and refusal to supply key equipment have exposed India’s dependence on Chinese imports. Efforts like Make in India and buy swadeshi face hurdles in quickly reducing this reliance. India’s need to negotiate relief from Chinese trade embargoes shows the depth of economic interdependence.
Russia’s Role in India’s Energy Security
Russia’s discounted oil was once seen as beneficial for India’s energy needs. However, geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West have complicated this relationship. The US pressures India to reduce energy ties with Moscow, making India’s energy security a contentious issue amid global power rivalries.
India and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
The SCO is a platform for regional cooperation but is fraught with contradictions. India’s strained relations with China and Pakistan’s protected status limit SCO’s effectiveness on counterterrorism. India rejects China’s Belt and Road Initiative and remains cautious of the forum’s political dynamics. Pakistan’s presence and its allies’ participation add to India’s diplomatic challenges within the SCO.
China’s Expanding Influence in South Asia
China is deepening its role in South Asia through the SCO and bilateral engagements. It promotes itself as a benign benefactor and economic stabiliser. China’s initiatives with Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar aim to strengthen its regional dominance. This expansion challenges India’s traditional influence in the Subcontinent.
India-Japan Strategic Partnership
Modi’s visit to Tokyo aims to elevate India’s partnership with Japan. New defence, trade, and technology agreements are expected. Japan and other Northeast Asian allies are recalibrating their security and economic policies amid US pressures. India seeks to build a more independent and robust role in Asia, leveraging ties with Japan and the maritime region.
Regional Geopolitics and India’s Strategic Position
India’s continental ambitions are limited by unresolved border disputes and tensions with China and Pakistan. However, its maritime partnerships offer growth potential. India must balance competing influences from China and the US while navigating complex regional alliances and rivalries.
Opportunities and Limitations at Tianjin and Tokyo
The SCO summit in Tianjin presents a chance for India to stabilise relations with China but no major breakthroughs are expected. In contrast, Tokyo offers tangible prospects for deepening strategic cooperation. India’s diplomacy in 2025 reflects a nuanced approach to balancing global powers while advancing national interests.
Questions for UPSC:
- Critically discuss India’s trade relations with the United States and China in the context of its strategic autonomy.
- Examine the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in South Asian geopolitics and India’s position within it.
- Analyse the impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative on regional stability and India’s foreign policy in South Asia.
- With suitable examples, discuss the significance of India-Japan strategic partnerships in the evolving Indo-Pacific security landscape.
