With the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic, India adopted strict precautionary measures from mid-March. These included limiting incoming international flights and by March 24, a full halt on domestic air travel. As a consequence, this action cut off an essential source of weather data for the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Despite the challenges, IMD officials reassured citizens that the annual monsoon forecast remains unaffected, with the first predictions expected in mid-April.
Role of Aviation in Collecting Weather Data
Aircrafts play an indispensable role in relaying information about the temperature and wind speed in the upper atmosphere to global meteorological agencies. This data feed into the scientific models predicting future weather conditions. Changes in weather conditions, such as developing thunderstorms or temperature fluctuations, often commence at altitudes aircrafts traverse.
Understanding Dynamical Models
Dynamical models represent algorithms containing time-based elements, allowing for the interactions between variables over time. They simulate the condition of the atmosphere and oceans at a specific time, then project these factors into the future using the standard laws of physics. Supercomputers run these models to provide weather forecasts for periods extending up to two weeks.
Adaptations of IMD During the Pandemic
Due to the lack of aviation-generated data this year, IMD plans to depend more on its traditional statistical forecast system based on historical data. However, this decision also poses challenges due to the shortage of manpower caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. The IMD usually releases its first forecast for the June-September monsoon period in April and updates it in June.
India’s Approach to Weather Forecasting Models
Until 2010, IMD relied solely on statistical models to predict the monsoon. These models identified climate parameters associated with the performance of the monsoon for example, sea surface temperature between North Atlantic and North Pacific, the volume of warm water in the equatorial Pacific, and the Eurasian snow cover.
In 2015, IMD initiated the testing of a dynamical system that simulated weather at specific locations on a given day and calculated how these weather variables would change over time using powerful computers. Though these dynamic models are not yet entirely reliable for monsoon forecasting, they are becoming increasingly useful in providing localised forecasts and early warnings for farmers of weather changes 10-15 days ahead.
Role of India Meteorological Department
Established in 1875, IMD is part of the Ministry of Earth Sciences under the Government of India umbrella. It is the primary agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting, and seismology in India. Despite dependence and shift towards more advanced and high-resolution computer models, there still remains room for improvement in terms of drought warnings and extreme changes in monsoon rainfall predictions.