Article:
Understanding the increasing threat of future pandemics has become an essential quest for mankind especially in the wake of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Recently, the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem (IPBES), an independent intergovernmental body established by the United Nations (UN) in 2012, unleashed a comprehensive report regarding this matter. The report warns of the more frequent emergence, faster spread, and higher fatality rate of future pandemics, surpassing the damage caused by Covid-19 unless significant measures are taken.
The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem (IPBES)
The IPBES was set up with the primary objective to fortify the science-policy interface for biodiversity and ecosystem services. Its mission is directed towards ensuring the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity for long-term human well-being and sustainable development.
Understanding Pandemics: A Brief History
It’s important to note that Covid-19 represents at least the sixth global health crisis within the last century. This timeline starts from the Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918, recognized as one of the most severe pandemics in recent history. Alongside this and Covid-19, there have been four other significant pandemics, three due to influenza viruses, one by Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), and another due to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).
Causes Behind the Emergence of Pandemics
An interesting commonality between all these pandemics is their zoonotic nature. Zoonoses are diseases that transmit between animals and people. More than 70% of emerging diseases, including Ebola, Zika, and Nipah, have originated from microbes found in animals. These diseases have spread due to increased contact among wildlife, livestock, and people. One of the major contributing factors to this is the escalating value of the international wildlife trade which was estimated at about USD 107 billion in 2019 — a 500% increase since 2005 and a 2000% increase since the 1980s. Yet, it’s also important to recognize that human activities, including land-use change, agricultural expansion, and urbanization, play a significant role in facilitating these pandemics.
Forecast: Future Pandemics
The threat of future pandemics remains high with over 1.7 million ‘undiscovered’ viruses believed to exist in mammals and birds. Out of these, up to 827,000 could have the ability to infect humans.
Reducing the Risk of Future Pandemics
Mitigating the risk of future pandemics necessitates reducing human activities that drive biodiversity loss, enhanced conservation of protected areas, and measures that curb unsustainable exploitation of high biodiversity regions. These steps will minimize the contact between wildlife-livestock and humans, acting as a preventive measure against the spread of new diseases. Policy recommendations also include launching a high-level intergovernmental council on pandemic prevention, establishing mutually-agreed goals or targets concerning the environment, animals and people, and decreasing zoonotic disease risk in the international wildlife trade through the formation of intergovernmental ‘health and trade’ partnerships.
Clarifying Terminology: Pandemic vs. Epidemic
Understanding the difference between a pandemic and an epidemic is crucial for grasping the severity of global health crises. The World Health Organization (WHO) defines a pandemic as a disease for which people do not have immunity that spreads worldwide beyond expectations. Conversely, an epidemic represents a large outbreak that remains confined to a population or region, rendering it less severe than a pandemic due to its limited area of spread.