The United Nations’ scientific body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has recently unveiled the third part of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This segment of the report focuses on climate change impacts, risks and vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. It follows the March 2022 publication of the second part of the report and the first part released in 2021 which warned about nearing the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius warming before 2040.
Key Findings: GreenHouse Gas Emissions
Data from 2019 indicated that global net anthropogenic Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reached 59 Gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e), a 54% increase compared to 1990 levels. The main drive behind this rise in emissions is CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and industrial sectors, as well as methane emissions. However, the average annual rate of growth saw a slowdown to 1.3% per year during 2010-19, compared to 2.1% per year in the previous decade.
Emission Reduction Efforts
At least 18 countries have shown continuous GHG emissions reduction for more than a decade due to decarbonisation, energy efficiency measures and reduced energy demand. On the other hand, Least Developed Countries (LDCs) emitted only 3.3% of global emissions in 2019, highlighting the pervasive carbon inequality across the globe.
Pledges to the Paris Agreement
Despite the existing pledges or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) announced by countries until October 2021, the IPCC anticipates that warming will likely exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius this century, thereby failing the Paris Agreement’s mandate. This failure is primarily attributed to the CO2 emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructures.
Global Response: Low Emissions Technologies
The IPCC insists that widespread ‘system transformations’ across various sectors including energy, buildings, transport, and land are needed to achieve the 1.5°C target. This entails adopting low-emission or zero carbon pathways of development in each sector, which are available at affordable costs. The costs of low emissions technologies have significantly dropped since 2010, making their deployment more viable and promising.
Demand-side Mitigation and Impact on GDP
The report also emphasizes the potential of demand-side mitigation. Behavioural changes such as adopting plant-based diets or shifting to walking and cycling could reduce global GHG emissions in end-use sectors by 40-70% by 2050. The IPCC also maintains that low-cost climate mitigation options could halve global GHG emissions by 2030, and in the long run, the benefits of limiting warming surpass the costs. Investments in decarbonisation would only minimally impact the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Financial Short Fall
However, financial flows are currently falling short of the levels needed to achieve ambitious mitigation goals, particularly in the agriculture, forestry, and other land uses (AFOLU) sector and for developing countries. The IPCC suggests that scaled-up public grants, higher levels of public finance, and increased mobilization of private finance flows from developed to developing countries can help manage this deficit.
About the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the IPCC provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts, future risks, and adaptation and mitigation options. Its assessments underpin negotiations at the UN Climate Conference and form a scientific basis for climate-related policymaking at all government levels.
The Assessment Reports of IPCC
Since its first report in 1990, the IPCC’s Assessment Reports have been providing detailed evaluations of the earth’s climatic conditions. These reports, released approximately every seven years, collate all relevant, published scientific information to present a comprehensive understanding of the changing climate. Over the years, each assessment report has contributed more evidence, information, and data, enhancing clarity about climate change and its impacts. These crucial documents have shaped global climate change responses, leading to key international agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the Kyoto Protocol.
