The recent release of a special report commissioned by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), addressing the scientific feasibility of maintaining a global warming increase of no more than 1.5°C, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, has sparked concern. The study suggests that merely reducing emissions will not suffice to achieve this goal. According to the report, we can expect the world to surpass the 1.5°C limit between 2030 and 2052 if we continue at our current rate of emissions. This overview summarizes the key findings and implications of this report.
Background
Currently, the world is striving to prevent an increase in temperature beyond 2°C, which aligns with the goals set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. In order to accomplish this, the plan is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% from 2010 levels by 2030 and attain a net-zero emission level by 2075. Net-zero emission refers to the balance achieved when the total emissions are equal to the absorption of carbon dioxide through natural means (forests) or technological interventions (removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere).
Prior reports from the IPCC warned that allowing global average temperatures to increase beyond 2°C could have irreversible and catastrophic impacts.
Key Findings
The report predicts that a 1.5°C increase in global temperature will result in amplified sea level rise, increased rainfall, more frequent droughts and floods, hotter days and heatwaves, stronger tropical cyclones, and increased ocean acidification and salinity. Coastal nations and agricultural economies, particularly in Asia and Africa, will be heavily impacted, potentially elevating poverty levels by several hundred million by 2050.
Even though a 1.5°C rise in global temperature will have significant effects, a 2°C rise would be disastrous. The report states that the jump from 1.5 to 2°C greatly amplifies risks and a 2°C increase will cause devastation beyond what was previously indicated by the IPCC’s earlier reports.
Impacts of a Limited 1.5°C Rise versus a 2°C Rise
If global warming is limited to a 1.5°C increase rather than 2°C: global sea level rise could be reduced by 10 cm by 2100, climate-related risks would decrease, thawing of permafrost areas would be limited between 1.5 to 2.5 million sq km, land area risk would reduce by approximately 50%, marine ecosystems would be less vulnerable, an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer would occur once per century instead of once per decade, and there would be less decline in coral reefs (70-90% with 1.5°C, over 99% with 2°C).
Given the potential scale and intensity of devastation at 1.5°C, maintaining this target may be crucial to avoid the severe impacts expected at a 2°C increase.
Carbon Reduction Measures and Way Forward
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, the report suggests that we must achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and significantly reduce emissions by at least 45% by 2030. Achieving these goals will require rapid and extensive transformations in energy, land use, urban infrastructure, industrial systems, and de-carbonisation.
Developed countries need to take the lead in progressing this transformation, addressing consumption while supporting developing countries. However, adaptation should also be emphasized, including gradual changes and more financial support directed towards adaptation efforts.
While urgent action is required, it should be equitable; the burden of addressing climate change cannot solely fall on the developing world. Policymakers will have to act upon the scientific findings of the IPCC and guide discussions at global forums, including the Talanoa Dialogue and COP 24 in Poland.
About IPCC
Established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme, the IPCC is the international body responsible for assessing climate change-related science. It provides governments at all levels with scientific assessments on climate change, its impacts, future risks, and adaptation and mitigation options.