The latest reports reveal that Iran has recommenced enriching uranium up to 20%, a violation of the 2015 nuclear accord. Additionally, a South Korean-flagged tanker was seized near the critical Strait of Hormuz. In response to threats from Iran, the USA has opted to retain the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Nimitz in the Gulf region.
Uranium Enrichment
Natural uranium comprises two different isotopes: nearly 99% U-238 and about 0.7% U-235. U-235 is a fissile material capable of sustaining a chain reaction in a nuclear reactor. The enrichment process enhances the proportion of U-235 through the isotope separation process. For nuclear weapons, enrichment up to 90% or more is required, termed Highly Enriched Uranium or weapons-grade uranium. Meanwhile, for nuclear reactors, enrichment up to 3-4% is necessary, known as Low Enriched Uranium or reactor-grade uranium.
The 2015 Nuclear Deal
In 2015, Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers – the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, Russia, and Germany – agreed on a long-lasting deal regarding its nuclear programme. This agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or commonly referred to as the Iran Nuclear Deal, compelled Iran to restrain its nuclear activity in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and access to global trade.
Iran was permitted to accumulate small amounts of uranium for research; however, the banning of uranium enrichment was enforced due to its use in the making of reactor fuel and nuclear weapons. But in May 2018, the USA abandoned the deal, criticising it as flawed, and reintroduced and tightened sanctions. Ever since, Iran has steadily been violating some commitments to pressurise the remaining signatories to provide sanctions relief.
Issues Involved
These two incidents have exacerbated tensions between Iran and the USA. The enrichment could hasten Iran’s development of a nuclear bomb, a decision that has been criticised by Israel. This move echoes Iran’s decision a decade ago to start 20% purity enrichment, which nearly instigated an Israeli strike targeting its nuclear facilities. The resumption of 20% enrichment could reignite this brinkmanship as this level of purity is only a technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has previously voiced concerns over Iran’s obstruction of inspections at two suspect uranium enrichment sites.
The Strait of Hormuz Geographic Location
The Strait of Hormuz is the waterway separating Iran and Oman, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Iran lies on the north coast while the UAE and Musandam, an Omani enclave, are on the south. At its narrowest, the Strait is 21 miles wide with the shipping lane being two miles wide on either side.
Regarded as one of the world’s most strategically significant choke points, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for two-thirds of India’s oil imports and half of its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Every day, up to 18 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait, accounting for one-third of global oil trade. A third of the world’s LNG trade also passes through the Strait.
Iran has threatened the safe passage of oil tankers in this strait over the last few years, prompting the US Fifth Fleet to guard it.
Way Forward
All countries part of the 2015 deal should constructively engage and peacefully resolve all issues through dialogue. Both the USA and Iran must exercise strategic restraint as any crisis in West Asia will not only impact the region but also have deleterious effects on global affairs.