Nearly five decades after the 1979 Iranian Revolution promised independence, freedom, and social justice, a growing number of Iranians view its outcome as a profound historical failure. Recurrent nationwide protests reflect not episodic unrest but a deep legitimacy crisis confronting the Islamic Republic—political, economic, and moral.
The promise of 1979 and the reality that followed
The 1979 revolution mobilised Iranian society around three ideals: ending foreign domination, securing political and individual freedoms, and ensuring social justice. While the monarchy was dismantled, political independence soon acquired a paradoxical meaning. Iran cut ties with the United States, but strategic autonomy did not follow; instead, dependence shifted towards China and Russia, often on unequal and constrained terms. Independence thus translated into isolation from the West rather than genuine sovereignty.
Systematic erosion of political and civil freedoms
Over the years, political participation has narrowed sharply. Although elections continue, real authority rests with unelected institutions. Surveillance, moral policing, and restrictions on speech, dress, and personal conduct have made everyday life subject to state control. Demands for reform are routinely dismissed as foreign-sponsored conspiracies, allowing repression to be framed as national defence and closing peaceful avenues for change.
Social justice undone by corruption and economic distress
The revolutionary promise of social justice has been undermined by structural corruption permeating the political and administrative system. For ordinary citizens, this has meant declining living standards and widening inequality between rulers and society.
- Chronic inflation and currency depreciation have eroded incomes and savings.
- Unemployment and underemployment have expanded economic insecurity.
- Daily life for many has become a struggle for basic survival.
Repeated protest cycles over recent decades reflect accumulated socio-economic frustration rather than transient anger.
Why the latest protests are different
The most recent protests began at Tehran’s Grand Bazaar—symbolically crucial because the bazaar has historically supported both the 1979 revolution and the Islamic Republic. Its participation signals a rupture between the regime and traditional social bases once considered loyal.
The movement rapidly moved beyond sectoral and economic demands, spreading across cities and smaller towns with explicitly political slogans, indicating a broader challenge to the system itself.
Repression, information control, and persistence of dissent
The state’s response has followed a familiar pattern: violent crackdowns, widespread internet shutdowns, communication restrictions, and even electricity cuts in some areas. The aim has been to create an information vacuum, limiting domestic coordination and global scrutiny.
Despite these measures and reports of significant casualties—difficult to independently verify due to blackouts—protests have persisted and, in places, escalated into direct confrontations between citizens and security forces.
The Islamic Republic as a domestic and international constraint
Over 47 years, the Islamic Republic has become both an internal obstacle to popular aspirations and a regional destabilising force. Its nuclear programme, ballistic missile development, and support for proxy groups have made Iran a focal point of geopolitical tension. Internally, this securitised outlook has justified the suppression of dissent by framing reformist demands as existential threats.
The international dimension and the US dilemma
Many Iranians believe domestic mobilisation alone cannot overcome an entrenched ideological state, while external pressure without internal legitimacy cannot produce durable change. Statements by Donald Trump supporting protesters and warning against civilian killings have sharpened expectations.
Three broad response paths are debated:
- A symbolic response that preserves rhetoric but emboldens repression.
- A limited military response targeting nuclear or missile infrastructure, likely intensifying domestic crackdowns.
- A decisive action aimed at core instruments of power and repression, potentially altering internal balances.
Failure to act amid reports of large-scale violence risks signalling that repression remains a tolerable cost.
Opposition fragmentation and leadership vacuum
A critical weakness of the protest movement is the absence of unified leadership. Monarchists, centred around the son of Iran’s last shah, command media visibility, while republicans fear replacing one authoritarian system with another. The most prominent republican figure, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, has remained under house arrest for years, deepening the leadership vacuum.
Determinants of Iran’s political future
Iran’s trajectory now depends on several interlinked variables:
- The nature and scale of external responses.
- The opposition’s ability to overcome ideological divisions.
- The degree of violence society can withstand.
- The health, succession, or removal of the regime’s ageing leadership.
What is already evident is the erosion of the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy among large sections of Iranian society. Any sudden disruption at the apex of power could expose deep internal rifts and fundamentally reshape the country’s political path.
What to note for Prelims?
- Core ideals of the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
- Political and symbolic role of Tehran’s Grand Bazaar.
- Use of internet shutdowns as a governance and repression tool.
What to note for Mains?
- Declining revolutionary legitimacy over time.
- Linkages between economic distress and political mobilisation.
- Interaction between domestic unrest and international geopolitics.
- Challenges of political transition in ideologically entrenched regimes.
