Israel’s Regional Hegemony Faces Long-Term Challenges

Recent developments in West Asia have brought into light Israel’s military dominance. Israel has weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon, expanded influence in Syria, devastated Gaza, and severely reduced Iran’s nuclear capabilities with U.S. assistance. The fragile ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump in Gaza signals a temporary pause. However, this ceasefire was imposed on Israel, halting its full military objectives against Hamas. The ongoing conflict and political dynamics suggest Israel’s regional hegemony may be short-lived.

Israel’s Military Gains and Political Limits

Israel’s recent military successes have been . Hezbollah’s military wing in Lebanon is near collapse. The Assad regime’s fall has allowed Israel to extend control into Syrian territory. Gaza’s destruction and Hamas’s weakened military strength mark a major shift. Yet, Israel had to accept a ceasefire and partial withdrawal in Gaza. Hamas only agreed to release Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Hamas remains unwilling to disarm or abandon governance ambitions in Gaza.

Demographic Challenges and the Binational State Dilemma

Israel’s demographic realities complicate its future. Within its 1967 borders, Palestinians form 20% of the population. Greater Israel would see almost equal numbers of Jews and Palestinians. This creates a binational state scenario. Israel faces a choice – accept equal rights for Palestinians and Jews or become an apartheid state. The first option ends the Zionist dream of a Jewish-only state. The second risks international isolation and condemnation similar to apartheid South Africa. Both options threaten Israel’s internal cohesion and democratic identity.

Impact on Arab States and Regional Alliances

Israel’s aggressive actions have unsettled Arab states, especially Gulf monarchies and Saudi Arabia. These countries had viewed Israel as a counterbalance to Iran. The Abraham Accords reflected this strategic alignment. However, Israel’s harsh Gaza campaign and the bombing of Hamas officials in Qatar have alarmed these states. Popular anger against Israel’s actions threatens the legitimacy of their regimes. Trust between Israel and Gulf allies has eroded, delaying further normalisation efforts. Israeli legitimacy among Arab elites is at a historic low.

Shifts in U.S. Public Opinion and Policy

U.S. support is crucial for Israel’s regional ambitions. Recent events have caused a sharp decline in American public support for Israel. Polls show a majority of Americans and American Jews view Israel’s actions as war crimes or genocide. This growing hostility influences U.S. policy. President Trump’s insistence on a ceasefire and diplomatic pressure on Israel signal changing dynamics. Israel’s dependence on the U.S. is evident in its public apology for the Qatar bombing. A shift in Washington’s stance could reshape West Asia’s political landscape.

Strategic Reassessment in Washington

Washington’s strategic interests in West Asia may now override unconditional support for Israel. With Iran’s nuclear threat diminished and the Axis of Resistance weakened, Israel’s value to the U.S. is declining. Israel is increasingly seen as an obstacle to broader American goals in the region. A transactional U.S. foreign policy under Trump prioritises American interests over alliances. Without U.S. backing, Israel’s regional hegemony is unlikely to endure.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically discuss the demographic challenges faced by Israel and their implications for its identity as a Jewish state.
2. Examine the impact of shifting Arab Gulf states’ policies on the Israel-Palestine conflict and regional stability.
3. Analyse the role of U.S. public opinion in shaping American foreign policy towards West Asia, with examples from recent years.
4. Discuss in the light of recent developments how changing U.S. strategic interests influence the dynamics of West Asian geopolitics.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically discuss the demographic challenges faced by Israel and their implications for its identity as a Jewish state.

1. Within 1967 borders, Palestinians constitute about 20% of Israel’s population (~2 million of 9 million total).
2. Greater Israel scenario would have near-equal Jewish and Palestinian populations, creating a binational state.
3. Israel faces a dilemma – either grant equal rights to all (ending Jewish-only state ideal) or become an apartheid-like state.
4. Granting equal rights threatens Zionist vision of a Jewish state; denying them risks international condemnation and isolation.
5. Both options risk internal division and undermine Israel’s democratic identity and long-term stability.
6. Demographic realities challenge Israel’s ability to maintain exclusive Jewish political control while preserving democracy.

2. Examine the impact of shifting Arab Gulf states’ policies on the Israel-Palestine conflict and regional stability.

1. Gulf states initially saw Israel as a strategic counterweight to Iran, leading to Abraham Accords normalization.
2. Israel’s aggressive Gaza campaign and bombing of Hamas officials in Qatar alarmed Gulf regimes.
3. Popular anger in Arab populations against Israel threatens legitimacy of Gulf authoritarian regimes.
4. Trust between Israel and Gulf allies eroded, delaying further normalization, especially with Saudi Arabia.
5. Gulf states now view Israel as unpredictable and potentially destabilizing rather than a reliable partner.
6. Shift weakens regional alliances against Iran and complicates prospects for peace in Israel-Palestine conflict.

3. Analyse the role of U.S. public opinion in shaping American foreign policy towards West Asia, with examples from recent years.

1. American public and Jewish community opinion has shifted negatively towards Israel, citing war crimes and genocide allegations.
2. Pew and Washington Post polls show majority Americans and Jewish groups critical of Israeli policies in Gaza.
3. Declining U.S. public support pressures policymakers to reconsider unconditional backing of Israel.
4. Trump administration’s imposition of ceasefire on Israel and demand for apology over Qatar bombing reflect this shift.
5. Growing public hostility could influence Congress and executive policy, reducing aid or diplomatic support to Israel.
6. Changing U.S. public opinion aligns with broader international criticism, impacting Israel’s global legitimacy.

4. Discuss in the light of recent developments how changing U.S. strategic interests influence the dynamics of West Asian geopolitics.

1. Degradation of Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities reduces Israel’s strategic value to the U.S.
2. Washington’s transactional foreign policy under Trump prioritizes American economic and strategic goals over alliances.
3. Israel increasingly perceived as an obstacle to U.S. broader objectives in West Asia, including relations with Gulf states.
4. U.S. willingness to pressure Israel (e.g., ceasefire imposition) signals recalibration of support.
5. Potential shift in U.S. policy could weaken Israel’s regional hegemony and alter power balance in West Asia.
6. U.S. strategic reassessment may open space for new regional alignments and peace initiatives beyond Israeli dominance.