In early January 2025, Los Angeles faced severe wildfires exacerbated by human-induced climate change. A report by World Weather Attribution revealed that climate change increased the likelihood of such fires by approximately 35 per cent. Global temperatures exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2024, raising concerns about future fire risks. The conditions that led to these devastating fires were a mix of drought, high temperatures, and strong winds, particularly the Santa Ana winds.
Climate Change and Wildfire Risk
Human-induced climate change has heightened the risk of wildfires in California. The report indicates that if temperatures rise to 2.6 degrees Celsius by 2100, the chances of fire-prone conditions will increase by another 35 per cent. This alarming trend marks the urgent need for climate action.
Seasonal Fire Patterns in Southern California
Southern California experiences a unique wildfire season. From July to September, the region faces large fires due to low fuel moisture. The summer months are characterised by high temperatures and low humidity, creating ideal conditions for wildfires. However, fires can occur year-round, especially when strong winds are present.
The Role of Santa Ana Winds
Santa Ana winds play important role in wildfire spread. These dry winds occur when high-pressure air from the desert moves towards lower pressure off the coast. They are most prevalent during cooler months and can rapidly escalate small fires into large infernos, especially when vegetation is dry.
Drought and Rainfall Trends
Drought conditions have worsened in recent years. The duration of highly flammable drought conditions has increased by an average of 23 days annually since the preindustrial era. Additionally, rainfall during the traditionally wet months of October to December has decreased , making wildfires more likely.
Impact of El Niño and La Niña
El Niño and La Niña are natural climate phenomena that influence weather patterns. Current research shows that low rainfall during the October-December period is now 2.4 times more likely during neutral El Niño conditions and 1.8 times more likely during La Niña conditions compared to preindustrial times. This shift has serious implications for wildfire seasons.
Challenges in Fire Management
The combination of climate change, dry conditions, and strong winds creates a “perfect storm” for wildfires. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable as fires spread rapidly into populated regions. The strain on water systems complicates firefighting efforts, making it critical for California to enhance its wildfire preparedness.
Call for Better Preparedness
Experts stress the need for improved strategies to combat winter wildfires. The recent fires illustrate California’s vulnerability to changing climate conditions. Better preparation is essential to mitigate the impact of future wildfires and protect communities.
Questions for UPSC:
- Critically discuss the impact of human-induced climate change on global weather patterns.
- Analyse the role of seasonal climatic variations in the frequency of natural disasters.
- Examine how urbanisation contributes to the vulnerability of regions to extreme weather events.
- Estimate the relationship between drought conditions and wildfire occurrences in temperate climates.
Answer Hints:
1. Critically discuss the impact of human-induced climate change on global weather patterns.
- Human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, increase greenhouse gas concentrations, leading to global warming.
- Higher global temperatures disrupt traditional weather patterns, resulting in more extreme weather events.
- Changes in precipitation patterns lead to droughts in some regions and flooding in others, affecting agriculture and water supply.
- Climate change exacerbates natural disasters, making them more frequent and severe, as seen with wildfires and hurricanes.
- International reports, like those from the IPCC, highlight the urgent need for global climate action to mitigate these impacts.
2. Analyse the role of seasonal climatic variations in the frequency of natural disasters.
- Seasonal variations influence temperature, humidity, and precipitation, which are critical factors for disaster occurrence.
- In Southern California, dry summers and strong Santa Ana winds create ideal conditions for wildfires.
- Changes in seasonal rainfall patterns can lead to prolonged droughts or increased flooding, impacting ecosystems and communities.
- Natural phenomena like El Niño and La Niñly affect seasonal weather, altering disaster risks.
- About these patterns is vital for disaster preparedness and response strategies in vulnerable regions.
3. Examine how urbanisation contributes to the vulnerability of regions to extreme weather events.
- Urbanisation increases population density, leading to greater exposure to risks from extreme weather events.
- Development often encroaches on natural landscapes, reducing their ability to absorb rainfall and mitigate flooding.
- Infrastructure may be inadequately designed to withstand extreme weather, increasing damage and risk during disasters.
- Urban heat islands can exacerbate temperature extremes, leading to increased heat-related health issues.
- Effective urban planning and green infrastructure can help reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to climate impacts.
4. Estimate the relationship between drought conditions and wildfire occurrences in temperate climates.
- Drought conditions create dry vegetation, which serves as fuel for wildfires, increasing their frequency and intensity.
- In temperate climates, prolonged dry spells can lead to wildfire events, particularly during warmer months.
- Climate change has lengthened drought periods, making wildfires more likely and severe in affected regions.
- Statistical analyses show a strong correlation between drought indices and wildfire occurrences over time.
- Effective land management and fire prevention strategies are essential to mitigate wildfire risks in drought-prone areas.
