The Persian Gulf region, recognized worldwide for its vast reserves of crude oil and natural gas, has historically played a critical role in shaping global economy. This region, which is shared by eight countries including Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), all United Nations members, is of geopolitical significance and requires stability both politically and economically.
Persian Gulf Region: A Brief Overview
The Persian Gulf region is shared by eight nations, all of which are United Nations members. Out of these, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait are also members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Notably, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are part of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). As major crude oil and natural gas producers, these countries share common interests that often lead to their individual prosperity, but can also result in economic and political entanglement amongst them.
Historical Context: The Legacy of the British Era
Prior to 1970, the Persian Gulf was under British rule for nearly eight decades. With the end of the British reign, regional powers emerged with intra-regional rivalries and forced cooperation. Yet, events such as the Muscat Conference (1975), the Iranian Revolution (1979), and the Iraq-Iran War (1980) fanned political tensions in the region. Consequently, this increased USA’s involvement and interests in the area.
Current Geopolitical Scenario in the Region
Recently, conflicts in West Asian nations like Yemen, Syria, and Libya have strained global and regional relationships. Amidst these conflicts, there has been a significant decline in USA-Iran relations, especially due to disagreements on Iran’s nuclear program. The reduced USA’s commitment to regional security has raised concerns among GCC members given their ideological disagreement with Iran. An emerging split within the GCC is also apparent due to conflicting interests and divisions exacerbated by the global economic crisis, impact of Covid-19 on regional economies, issues within OPEC, and a decline in oil prices.
Proposed Stability Framework for the Region
For stability and security in the region, it’s crucial to ensure safety not only on regional terms but also on global terms. The gulf region’s security isn’t exclusively a concern for Gulf States; it’s an external concern too. The suggested framework also needs to assure peace, allow all Gulf states to exploit their resources freely, ensure free commercial shipping in international waters of the Persian Gulf, provide access to and outlet from Gulf waters through the Strait of Hormuz, and prevent conflicts that may hinder freedom of trade and shipping.
India and the Persian Gulf Region
India’s relationship with the GCC has flourished in recent years, reflecting positively in $121 billion bilateral trade and remittances of $49 billion from over nine million workers. GCC suppliers also account for nearly 34% of India’s crude imports. Although India enjoys a cordial relationship with Iran, USA’s pressure and subsequent economic sanctions against Iran have put India-Iran relations in a complex phase.
What Lies Ahead?
Recent assessments suggest that Saudi Arabia’s power is diminishing, and countries like UAE, Qatar, and Iran are emerging as new regional leaders. Oman and Iraq might struggle to retain their sovereign identities. India could benefit if regional stability is achieved through cooperative security. In contrast, competitive security options cannot promise lasting peace.