The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) in partnership with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has begun development on an Early Health Warning System that aims to forecast possible disease outbreaks throughout the country. Based on the relationship between weather changes and disease incidence, the innovative model promises to predict outbreaks of vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria and diarrhoea, and monitor non-communicable diseases (NCDs) over time.
About: The Early Health Warning System
Early warning systems, as defined by the World Health Organisation (WHO), are timely surveillance systems designed to gather data on diseases prone to becoming epidemics. These then trigger quick public health interventions. Unlike traditional systems which rely on epidemiologists’ thorough reviews of incoming data, the model under development takes advantage of statistical methods to detect significant changes in trends or events needing intervention.
Epidemiology is a discipline that studies the distribution and determinants of health-related states and events within particular populations. This model being crafted draws its premise from this concept since several diseases show direct connections to weather shifts.
Significance: Disease Prediction and Monitoring
Vector-borne diseases like Malaria, Dengue, Yellow fever, Lymphatic filariasis, Chagas disease, and others, originating from organisms transmitting pathogens and parasites from an infected entity to another, have direct links to weather patterns. In the same vein, weather conditions also affect NCDs. For instance, cardiovascular problems and respiratory diseases relate directly with the occurrence of heat waves and the level of environmental pollution, respectively.
Deployment of this unique system would provide local authorities ample preparation time ahead of possible disease outbreaks.
Analysis and Studies: Validating the Early Warning System
To examine the system’s effectiveness, a comprehensive analysis was conducted on two Maharashtra districts, Pune and Nagpur, regarding malaria and diarrhoea cases. Notably, Nagpur reported a higher number of malaria cases whilst Pune recorded a greater diarrhoea case number.
Weather parameters variability in both time and space play a vital role in disease incidence. For instance, a short-term increase in temperature and rainfall due to El-Niño could instigate a malaria epidemic. A study by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) documented that climate change might heighten diarrhoeal diseases risk, especially in developing countries with increasing droughts and floods incidents.
COVID-19 and Weather Patterns
Although studies and analyses on how weather patterns affect viral diseases have been carried out, researchers are yet to establish a definite link between the COVID-19 pandemic and weather patterns. The complexity of this disease presents a challenge in determining this link.
The unique Early Health Warning System in development by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is a leap forward in predicting and monitoring disease outbreaks induced by changing weather patterns. It’s a significant stride in improving public health interventions while also arming local authorities with the necessary tools to prepare for outbreaks and ensure their communities’ health.