The monsoon season from June to September 2024 has been unprecedented, characterised by an alarming increase in extreme rainfall events. According to a report by Climate Trends, the season recorded the highest number of severe rainfall incidents since 2020. This surge in extreme weather patterns raises concerns about climate change and its implications for agricultural practices, water management, and disaster preparedness in India.
About Monsoon Patterns
Monsoons in India are important climatic phenomenon, influencing the country’s agriculture and economy. Typically, the Indian monsoon is divided into two phases: the southwest monsoon, which occurs from June to September, and the northeast monsoon from October to December. The southwest monsoon is vital as it accounts for nearly 75% of the annual rainfall. However, recent years have seen a shift in rainfall patterns, leading to an increase in both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
Extreme Rainfall Events
During the 2023 monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported over 2,600 instances of ‘extremely’ heavy rainfall, defined as over 204 mm in 24 hours. Such levels of precipitation can lead to severe flooding, landslides, and infrastructural damage. Comparatively, only 473 instances of ‘very’ heavy rainfall, ranging from 115 to 204 mm, were recorded. This uneven distribution of rainfall has implications for water management, agriculture, and urban planning.
Impact of Climate Change
The correlation between climate change and monsoon variability has become increasingly evident. Research indicates that global warming contributes to more intense rainfall events due to rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns. Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, UK, emphasises that climate change scenarios suggest a pattern of longer dry spells followed by intense rainfall. This variability poses challenges for farmers who rely on predictable weather patterns for crop planning and harvesting.
Soil Saturation and Flood Risk
KJ Ramesh, former director general of IMD, points out that the longevity of monsoon systems has increased, leading to soil saturation. When soil is saturated, any additional rainfall can result in surface runoff, increasing the risk of floods. In 2023, 167 districts reported a rainfall deficit, while 340 districts experienced normal rainfall, indicating a stark contrast in regional weather patterns. This uneven distribution can exacerbate drought conditions in some areas while leading to flooding in others.
Night Temperature Anomalies
Despite the above-normal rainfall, the 2024 monsoon season also recorded unusually warm night temperatures across various regions. The average night temperatures in east and northeast India were the highest on record, indicating a worrying trend of rising temperatures even during the monsoon. This phenomenon can disrupt local ecosystems and affect human health, as warmer nights can lead to increased energy consumption and discomfort.
Future Implications
The implications of these changing monsoon patterns are profound. The agricultural sector, which employs an important portion of India’s population, faces uncertainty as farmers grapple with unpredictable rainfall. Additionally, urban areas must enhance their infrastructure to manage increased flooding risks. Policymakers need to consider these trends in their planning and disaster management strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of extreme weather.
