The southwest monsoon in India has begun withdrawing earlier than usual in 2025. Despite this, rainfall was about 7 per cent above average. Weather forecasts predict continued rain due to La Niña conditions by October. A colder winter is also expected. These changes carry both opportunities and risks for Indian agriculture.
Monsoon Rainfall and Reservoir Status
Excess monsoon rain has filled reservoirs across India. Soil moisture levels are high, benefiting Kharif crops like rice and maize. This moisture also supports upcoming Rabi crop sowing. Good water availability reduces irrigation stress and improves crop prospects.
Positive Effects on Crop Production
Farmers in Rajasthan and northern India welcome the cooler weather. Crops such as wheat, barley, and mustard thrive in cold conditions. A strong output of wheat, pulses, and mustard will enhance food security. It can also stabilise prices and increase export potential, improving farmers’ incomes.
Risks from Weather Variability
Unseasonal rain during harvest can damage crops and spoil perishables like fruits and vegetables. Past instances show such rain pushes food prices higher, causing inflation. Cold waves, if prolonged, may harm flowering and grain development. Frost threats affect regions like Gujarat’s Kutch. Delayed monsoon withdrawal may cause waterlogging, affecting crop health and yields.
Policy and Management Measures
Timely weather advisories are essential for farmers to adjust sowing and harvesting. Crop insurance must be promoted to protect against weather shocks. Monitoring food prices, especially perishables, helps prevent shortages. Transport, cold storage, and local buffer stocks can stabilise supply chains. Water management is crucial, using filled reservoirs for irrigation and maintaining drainage in flood-prone areas.
Long-Term Adaptation Strategies
Weather variability is becoming the norm, not an exception. India needs proactive systems rather than reactive responses. Investment in advanced weather forecasting is vital. Developing climate-resilient seed varieties will help crops withstand extremes. Decentralised food storage can reduce losses and stabilise markets. These steps ensure stability for farmers and consumers alike.
Outlook for Agriculture in 2025
With careful management, India can convert a good monsoon and colder winter into higher farm output. Stable food prices and improved farmer incomes are achievable. The agricultural sector’s resilience depends on integrated policies and timely interventions.
Questions for UPSC:
- Critically discuss the impact of La Niña on Indian monsoon patterns and agricultural productivity.
- Examine the role of crop insurance and weather forecasting in mitigating agricultural risks in India.
- Analyse the challenges of water management in flood-prone and drought-prone regions and suggest sustainable solutions.
- Estimate the effects of climate variability on food security and inflation in India, and how policy measures can address these issues.
