Multi-Year Droughts (MYDs)

Recent studies indicate that multi-year droughts (MYDs) are becoming increasingly common and severe due to climate change. A comprehensive analysis covering four decades reveals rise in the frequency and intensity of these droughts. The study marks alarming statistics, with an estimated 50,000 square kilometres of terrestrial land affected each year since 1980.

About Multi-Year Droughts (MYDs)

Multi-Year Droughts are prolonged periods of drought lasting two years or more. They lead to severe soil water depletion and reduced streamflow. MYDs can cause irreversible consequences such as crop failures, increased tree mortality, and diminished ecosystem productivity. The severity of these droughts can overwhelm the resilience of ecosystems, resulting in widespread vegetation dieback.

Global Impact of MYDs

• The study identified 13,176 MYDs globally between 1980 and 2018.
• The most severe droughts affected regions across all continents, except Australia.
• Notable examples include central Chile and the western United States.
• On average, the area impacted by the top 10 MYDs increased at a rate of 16,704 square kilometres per year.
• The top 500 MYDs expanded at an alarming rate of 49,279 square kilometres annually.

Historical Context and Recent Trends

• Five of the ten most severe MYDs occurred from 2007 to 2018.
• The eastern Congo basin experienced the longest MYD, lasting from 2010 to 2018, covering an area of 1,494,226 square kilometres.
• The southwestern Amazon faced a nine-year MYD, with peak impact in 2015.

This trend suggests that the frequency and intensity of MYDs are likely to rise in the coming years.

El Niño’s Role in Drought Patterns

The analysis indicates a correlation between MYDs and El Niño events. Significant drought years followed El Niño occurrences in 1998, 2010, and 2015. This connection suggests that the effects of El Niño extend beyond tropical regions, impacting global weather patterns and contributing to prolonged drought conditions.

Future Implications and Preparedness

The study warns that MYDs may become more common and severe in the 21st century. The findings serve as a critical benchmark for enhancing preparedness and response strategies. Collaborative efforts are essential for mitigating the impacts of these extreme weather events.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Examine the socio-economic impacts of prolonged droughts on agriculture and food security.
2. Discuss in the light of climate change, the role of El Niño in influencing global weather patterns.
3. Critically discuss the ecological consequences of multi-year droughts on biodiversity and ecosystem services.
4. What are the strategies for mitigating the effects of multi-year droughts? How can communities adapt to these changes?

Answer Hints:

1. Examine the socio-economic impacts of prolonged droughts on agriculture and food security.

1. Prolonged droughts lead to crop failures, reducing food supply and increasing prices.
2. Livestock production declines due to lack of water and forage, affecting farmers’ livelihoods.
3. Increased food insecurity results in malnutrition and health issues, particularly in vulnerable populations.
4. Economic impacts include loss of agricultural jobs and increased poverty rates in rural areas.
5. Governments may face higher costs for food imports and disaster relief efforts, straining public resources.

2. Discuss in the light of climate change, the role of El Niño in influencing global weather patterns.

1. El Niño is characterized by warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific, affecting global weather systems.
2. It leads to altered precipitation patterns, causing droughts in some regions and floods in others.
3. Climate change intensifies these effects, making El Niño events more unpredictable and severe.
4. Research indicates that drought years often follow El Niño events, impacting agriculture and water supply.
5. El Niño’s influence extends beyond the tropics, affecting weather patterns globally and contributing to climate variability.

3. Critically discuss the ecological consequences of multi-year droughts on biodiversity and ecosystem services.

1. Multi-year droughts lead to severe soil degradation, reducing habitat quality for various species.
2. Increased tree mortality and vegetation dieback disrupt ecosystems, leading to loss of biodiversity.
3. Water scarcity affects freshwater ecosystems, diminishing fish populations and aquatic life.
4. Reduced ecosystem productivity impacts essential services such as carbon storage and soil fertility.
5. Long-term drought conditions can alter species distributions and lead to extinction of vulnerable species.

4. What are the strategies for mitigating the effects of multi-year droughts? How can communities adapt to these changes?

1. Implementing water conservation practices and efficient irrigation systems to maximize water use.
2. Adopting drought-resistant crop varieties to enhance agricultural resilience.
3. Promoting sustainable land management practices to improve soil health and water retention.
4. Developing early warning systems and community preparedness plans to respond to drought conditions.
5. Encouraging community engagement and education on sustainable practices to encourage resilience.