The ongoing civil war in Myanmar has intensified in 2025. The military junta, known as the State Administration Council (SAC), is losing control over large parts of the country. Resistance groups, including People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and ethnic armed organisations (EAOs), have gained ground. This turmoil deeply affects India, especially its northeastern states, influencing security, trade, and regional stability.
Escalating Civil War and Humanitarian Crisis
Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar faces a severe civil war. The military, or Tatmadaw, suffers historic defeats. Operation 1027 in 2023 marked a turning point with coordinated offensives by resistance groups. The junta uses harsh tactics like airstrikes and forced conscription. Over 3.5 million people are internally displaced. Nearly 20 million need humanitarian aid. Public services have collapsed and the economy is in freefall, causing widespread poverty and food insecurity.
Arakan Army’s Strategic Rise in Rakhine
The Arakan Army (AA) controls most of Rakhine State and the 271-km border with Bangladesh. It acts as a de facto government, managing justice and trade. The AA seeks to restore the ancient Kingdom of Arakan’s sovereignty. This challenges both India and Bangladesh. The AA controls key infrastructure critical to India’s and China’s projects. This includes India’s Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) assets in Kyaukphyu. The AA’s stance on Rohingya refugees adds complexity to regional relations and humanitarian concerns.
Impact on India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway
The India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) Trilateral Highway is vital for India’s Act East Policy. It connects India’s northeast to Southeast Asia, promising economic growth and reduced logistics costs. However, conflict in Myanmar delays construction. Key segments like Kalewa-Yagyi road and Tamu-Kyigone-Kalewa bridge remain incomplete. Security threats and political instability hinder progress. The absence of a stable government in Myanmar complicates agreements needed for smooth transit. The highway’s completion is now targeted for 2027.
Security and Political Challenges for India
The conflict has caused an influx of refugees into Mizoram and Manipur, straining local resources and stirring ethnic tensions. India’s traditional policy of engaging with Myanmar’s central government no longer suffices. Non-state actors like the AA hold power along the border. India must adopt a flexible strategy recognising these groups while maintaining diplomatic ties. This balancing act is crucial for securing India’s northeastern borders and advancing regional connectivity projects.
India’s Strategic Concerns and Regional Stability
The Myanmar conflict directly affects India’s security and economic interests. The fate of infrastructure projects and refugee flows depend on the evolving situation. India’s response will shape the future of its Act East Policy and regional influence. The crisis marks the complex interplay of ethnic conflicts, geopolitical ambitions, and humanitarian challenges in South Asia.
Questions for UPSC:
- Critically discuss the impact of ethnic armed organisations on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of nation-states, taking the example of Myanmar’s Arakan Army.
- Examine the strategic importance of regional connectivity projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway in enhancing India’s Act East Policy and countering China’s influence.
- With suitable examples, discuss the challenges posed by refugee influxes on border states’ security and social cohesion, focusing on India’s northeast region.
- Analyse the role of non-state actors in shaping international relations and security dynamics in conflict zones, drawing examples from Myanmar and other global contexts.
