The Myanmar military recently usurped power in a coup, marking the third occurrence of such event since the nation gained independence from British rule in 1948. The military has imposed a one-year state of emergency and detained the democratically elected leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. A coup is typically characterized as a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government.
Geographical and Demographical Snapshot of Myanmar
Located in South East Asia, Myanmar, also known as Burma, shares borders with Thailand, Laos, Bangladesh, China, and India. The country hosts a population of around 54 million, primarily Burmese speakers, though other languages are also prevalent. Myanmar’s largest city is Yangon (formerly known as Rangoon), however, the capital is Nay Pyi Taw. Buddhism is the dominant religion, and the nation comprises many ethnic groups, including the Rohingya Muslims.
Political History of Myanmar
Post its independence in 1948, Myanmar was under armed forces rule from 1962 until 2011. In 2011, a shift towards a civilian rule commenced with a new government. As the military regime decided to transition the nation towards democracy, political opponents were released, and multiparty elections were held for the first time in the 2010s. Following the 2015 election won by the National League for Democracy (NLD), hopes surged for the country’s full transition to democracy.
Key Points About the Recent Military Coup
In the November 2020 parliamentary election, Aung San Suu Kyi’s party NLD secured a majority. According to the military-drafted 2008 constitution, the military holds 25% of the total seats in Myanmar’s Parliament and several key ministerial positions. However, the military declared a state of emergency for a year, alleging substantial voting fraud in the parliamentary elections, just as the newly elected lawmakers were about to hold the first session of Parliament in 2021.
Global Reaction to Myanmar’s Military Coup
China urged all parties in Myanmar to resolve differences under the constitution and legal framework to maintain political and societal stability. The USA, on the other hand, threatened to reimpose sanctions and called for an international response to pressurize the military leaders to relinquish power. ASEAN countries adopted varying stances; while Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia expressed concern, Thailand, Cambodia, and the Philippines regarded it as Myanmar’s internal affair. Brunei, the ASEAN chair, stressed dialogue among parties, reconciliation, and the return to normalcy.
India’s Perspective and Interests in Myanmar
Although deeply concerned over recent developments in Myanmar, India reaffirms its support for democratic transition in the country. Notwithstanding the existing conditions, cutting ties with the Myanmar military is not a feasible option for India given its significant economic and strategic interests in Myanmar and its surrounding regions.
India’s Strategic Relations and Investments with Myanmar
India’s military-diplomatic outreach to Myanmar was integral to its Act East policy. Joint efforts encompass the repatriation of Indian insurgents from across the border by Myanmar and increasing sales of military hardware. Amongst various collaborative projects, the most recent instance highlights Myanmar’s use of India’s Covid vaccine, placing China’s doses on hold.
From infrastructure and connectivity perspective, India has committed several development projects with Myanmar, seen as the “gateway to the East” and ASEAN countries. These include operationalisation of the vital Sittwe port in Myanmar’s Rakhine state and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project linking Kolkata to Sittwe. Investments exceeding USD 1.2 billion place Myanmar’s importance above any other South Asian country for India.
India’s Security Concerns and Humanitarian Efforts in Myanmar
India has expressed concerns over some North-East regional militant groups like the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) and National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) seeking refuge in Myanmar. Hence, it requires continuous support from Myanmar to maintain security and stability along its North East border areas. Regarding the Rohingya refugee crisis, India is committed to their safe, sustainable, and speedy return from refugee camps located in India and Bangladesh.
The Way Forward for India-Myanmar Relations
Despite the military coup, India should continue engaging with Myanmar, work towards mutual development, and share experiences in constitutionalism and federalism to assist in resolving the prevailing stalemate. This involves fostering development projects, enhancing security cooperation, and supporting humanitarian efforts.
