Nearly five years after the February 2021 coup, Myanmar’s military has proceeded with staggered elections even as conflict, displacement and political repression persist. The polls, held in three phases between December 2025 and January 2026, are being projected by the Tatmadaw as a step towards normalcy. In reality, they underline the deep contradictions of a process conducted without peace, participation or legitimacy.
The Political Backdrop: A State Under Siege
The elections are unfolding in an atmosphere of intense political stress. Following the coup, the civilian leadership elected in 2020 remains incarcerated, including State Counsellor and senior leaders of the . Democracy activists and opposition figures continue to face detention and prosecution.
Simultaneously, the military reconstituted the Union Election Commission with members aligned to its interests, eroding the institutional neutrality required for credible elections. Armed resistance by People’s Defence Forces and Ethnic Armed Organisations has further fragmented state authority, leaving the military in control of urban pockets while large rural areas remain outside its writ.
Limited Reach and Coercive Administration
The elections are geographically incomplete. The Election Commission has acknowledged that polling will not be held in multiple constituencies of the Pyithu Hluttaw, Amyotha Hluttaw and State/Region legislatures due to security concerns. Even where elections are officially conducted, vast rural areas remain excluded.
In areas under military control, coercion has replaced consent. The Election Protection Law of July 2025 has been used to arrest critics, with over 200 detentions reported. The introduction of electronic voting machines, in a context marked by past electoral manipulation, has further weakened public trust. Unsurprisingly, voter turnout in the first phase was extremely low, exacerbated by large-scale migration as young people flee conscription and economic collapse.
A Truncated Party Landscape
The party system contesting these elections is heavily skewed. While the Election Commission has registered a handful of national and provincial parties, major political forces are absent. The dissolution of the NLD for refusing to re-register under a restrictive law has eliminated the largest national party from the contest.
Regionally influential parties such as the Arakan National Party and the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy were also denied registration. This has cleared the field for military-backed parties, particularly the Union Solidarity and Development Party, which enjoys superior resources and organisational reach. With several seats already uncontested, the USDP is widely expected to dominate the elected portion of the legislature, alongside another military-aligned party, the National Unity Party.
Electoral Design and Managed Outcomes
The structure of the electoral system itself is designed to prevent decisive civilian mandates. While the lower house uses a first-past-the-post system, the upper house and State legislatures combine proportional representation with FPTP. This hybrid arrangement is intended to fragment electoral outcomes, ensuring that no single party can replicate the sweeping victories the NLD achieved in 2015 and 2020.
Crucially, the military retains 25% of legislative seats by constitutional design, giving it an effective veto over constitutional amendments. Even with elections, legislative power remains firmly anchored within the Tatmadaw’s control.
Why 2010 Is an Unlikely Parallel
Some observers draw parallels with the post-2010 elections, after which President initiated political and economic reforms. However, the current military leadership views those reforms as strategic errors that enabled civilian dominance in subsequent elections.
Unlike 2011, today’s generals show little appetite for reformist experimentation. The earlier reforms were calibrated to preserve military supremacy; the present leadership appears determined to avoid even that limited opening.
International Reactions and Strategic Calculations
Globally, the elections have been met with scepticism. has barred Myanmar’s military leaders from its summits, forcing the regime to send civilian proxies. The UN, Japan, Australia and the European Union have criticised the polls as neither free nor inclusive.
In contrast, China and Russia have dispatched election observers, reflecting their strategic alignment with the Tatmadaw. The United States’ position has also drawn scrutiny, especially after the lifting of certain sanctions by the U.S. Treasury. Many observers fear that strategic interests, including access to rare earth minerals, may dilute Washington’s democracy rhetoric.
What to Note for Prelims?
- Myanmar elections are being held in three phases between December 2025 and January 2026.
- 25% of seats in Myanmar’s legislature are reserved for the military.
- The NLD was dissolved for refusing to re-register under a new law.
- ASEAN has excluded Myanmar’s military leaders from summit meetings.
What to Note for Mains?
- Critically examine the credibility of elections held under military rule.
- Analyse how electoral system design can be used to manage political outcomes.
- Discuss the limits of elections as a tool for legitimacy in conflict-ridden states.
- Assess India’s and ASEAN’s diplomatic challenges in engaging Myanmar.
The Road Ahead for Myanmar
The current elections are less about restoring democracy and more about manufacturing legitimacy. Without the release of political prisoners, inclusion of key parties, and an end to armed conflict, electoral exercises risk deepening polarisation. For Myanmar to move towards peace and prosperity, a genuinely federal and decentralised democratic framework is essential — a project that will require resolving ethnic conflicts and navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.
