Naga Insurgency – Latest Developments and Challenges

The Naga insurgency is one of India’s longest-running conflicts. The National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) recently issued an ultimatum demanding a separate flag and constitution. This ultimatum poses challenge to the Government of India. The NSCN-IM has threatened to resume armed insurgency if their demands are not met. This situation has drawn attention to the evolving dynamics of Naga politics and insurgency.

Background of Naga Insurgency

The Naga insurgency began with demands for a unified and independent homeland for Naga-inhabited areas across India and Myanmar. Over time, the NSCN-IM has moderated its stance. Now, it seeks shared sovereignty and special status under the Indian constitution. This shift reflects a broader trend among various insurgent groups in the region.

Recent Developments

On November 8, 2024, the NSCN-IM’s ultimatum brought into light the urgency of their demands. The Chief Minister of Nagaland led discussions with the Union Home Minister in New Delhi. However, the central government has not responded to these threats. This lack of response indicates a possible underestimation of the situation by New Delhi.

Internal Dynamics of NSCN-IM

The NSCN-IM, led by its 90-year-old general secretary, Thuingaleng Muivah, has about 5,000 members. Despite its cadre strength, the group has not engaged in active conflict for 27 years due to a ceasefire agreement. Internal divisions have emerged, especially with a recent revolt against military leadership. This discord raises questions about the group’s cohesion and future actions.

Negotiation Stalemate

The Framework Agreement signed in 2015 is viewed by the NSCN-IM as a commitment to their aspirations. However, New Delhi’s interpretation diverges . The absence of a dedicated interlocutor for negotiations has stalled progress. The NSCN-IM has called for third-party intervention to resolve the deadlock.

Role of Naga National Political Groups

The Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs) represent another faction in Naga politics. They have also made demands, including special provisions in Indian passports and legislative changes. However, these requests have received minimal attention from the central government. The NNPGs view the NSCN-IM’s demands as impractical, denoting the complexities within Naga leadership.

Future Implications

The ongoing tensions in the region are influenced by external factors. Deteriorating India-Bangladesh relations and the civil unrest in Myanmar could impact the Naga insurgency. The peace-loving Naga population is increasingly disillusioned with prolonged conflict. The Government of India hopes that this sentiment will help defuse tensions and lead to a resolution.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Examine the historical context of the Naga insurgency and its impact on regional stability.
2. Critically discuss the implications of the Framework Agreement signed between the NSCN-IM and the Government of India.
3. Analyse the internal divisions within the NSCN-IM and their effect on the group’s future actions.
4. Estimate the role of external geopolitical factors in shaping the dynamics of the Naga insurgency.

Answer Hints:

1. Examine the historical context of the Naga insurgency and its impact on regional stability.

1. The Naga insurgency began in the 1940s, seeking a unified and independent homeland for Naga-inhabited areas.
2. The NSCN-IM emerged as the primary insurgent group, advocating for Naga rights and identity.
3. Over the decades, the insurgency has led to instability in northeastern India, affecting governance and development.
4. Ceasefire agreements have shifted the dynamics, but unresolved issues continue to fuel tensions.
5. The insurgency has implications for ethnic relations, security policies, and regional autonomy movements in India.

2. Critically discuss the implications of the Framework Agreement signed between the NSCN-IM and the Government of India.

1. The Framework Agreement, signed in 2015, was perceived by NSCN-IM as a recognition of Naga identity and autonomy.
2. New Delhi’s interpretation focuses on national integrity, leading to differing expectations and frustrations.
3. The absence of tangible outcomes from the agreement has led to disillusionment among Naga groups.
4. It has stalled negotiations, causing a call for third-party intervention to break the deadlock.
5. The agreement’s implications extend to broader peace processes and governance in the region.

3. Analyse the internal divisions within the NSCN-IM and their effect on the group’s future actions.

1. Internal divisions have emerged, notably a recent revolt against military leadership, questioning loyalty and strategy.
2. These fractures weaken NSCN-IM’s cohesion and operational effectiveness, impacting its negotiating power.
3. The leadership crisis has led to public dissent and accusations of collaboration with the Government of India.
4. Such divisions may hinder the group’s ability to mount a unified response to government policies.
5. Future actions may be characterized by splintering factions, reducing the overall impact of the insurgency.

4. Estimate the role of external geopolitical factors in shaping the dynamics of the Naga insurgency.

1. Regional geopolitical tensions, such as India-Bangladesh relations, influence security policies in northeastern India.
2. The ongoing civil unrest in Myanmar may provide both challenges and opportunities for Naga insurgent groups.
3. International dynamics, including support for ethnic movements, can affect insurgent strategies and aspirations.
4. Geopolitical stability in the region is crucial for long-term peace and development in Nagaland.
5. The Naga population’s desire for peace may counterbalance external influences, promoting a resolution to the conflict.