The recent evaluation of the National Monsoon Mission’s (NMM) economic benefits by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has brought it to the headlines. Established in 1956 in New Delhi, NCAER is a non-profit, independent economic policy research institute – the oldest and largest in India.
Assessment Methodology Used by NCAER
NCAER’s study was extensive, spanning 173 rain-fed districts within 16 states. The chosen regions were representative of the country’s agro-climatic zones, rain-fed areas, major crop coverage, and extreme weather event incidence. Conducted on behalf of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), it termed ‘economic benefits’ as direct monetary gains for crop farmers, livestock rearers, and fishermen across India.
Investment Returns from The National Monsoon Mission
India’s nearly Rs. 1,000 crore investment in the NMM and High-Performance Computing (HPC) facilities is expected to reap benefits worth Rs. 50,000 crore. This sizable return will primarily benefit around 1.07 crore Below Poverty Line (BPL) agricultural households and 53 lakh BPL fisherfolk households throughout the nation.
By calculating the combined total annual economic benefits for agricultural households, farmers, and livestock owners, it was found to be approximately Rs. 13,331 crore. In addition, the incremental benefits over the next five years are anticipated to reach about Rs. 48,056 crore. These returns are linked to precise weather forecasting executed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and other MoES affiliated agencies.
Impact of Accurate Weather Forecasting
Weather services provided by IMD, such as agro-meteorological services for farmers, significantly impact the agriculture sector. Daily Ocean State Forecast (OSF) and warning advisories from the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) aid in eliminating unproductive ocean trips. Furthermore, the delivery of Potential Fishing Zone (PFZ) advisories results in successful trips and additional catches.
Data Analysis of Benefits
Analysis of the benefits indicates that weather advisories influenced 98% of farmers to modify their farming practices. Such changes involved adjusting harvest storage, crop variety, harvest timing, sowing schedules, land preparation, pesticide and fertilizer application schedules, and irrigation routines. As a result, 94% of farmers reported increased income resulting from loss avoidance due to NMM’s services. Additionally, 82% of all surveyed fishermen reported using OSF advisories before each sea expedition, leading to approximately Rs 1.92 crore additional income from 1,079 successful fishing expeditions using PFZ advisories.
About The National Monsoon Mission
Launched in 2012 by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the NMM aimed to enhance monsoon rainfall forecasting skills by establishing a state-of-the-art dynamic prediction system. By building partnerships between academic, R&D organisations, both nationally and internationally, NMM has succeeded in a paradigm shift in weather and climate modelling for operational weather forecasts. Its integration with HPC facilities has significantly contributed towards this achievement.