As we embark on 2023, a ‘new normal’ is being embraced worldwide with old and new fault lines being redefined in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific.
Decoding Eurasia
Eurasia, though not a novel concept, has been used by many as a neutral term to denote the vast landmass connecting Europe and Asia. While they are geographically connected, over the centuries, Europe and Asia have evolved as separate entities in political and cultural spheres. The definition of Eurasia varies, ranging from being a tectonic plate lying beneath most parts of Europe and Asia to the depiction in political boundaries where an international consensus remains elusive.
Transformation of Geopolitical Dynamics in Eurasia
Several countries are seeking to boost their military allegiances, like Japan forging strong partnerships with Europe and South Korea enhancing its image in Europe despite differences with Japan. Australia, which is part of the AUKUS partnership (Australia, the UK, and the US), is eager to involve Europe in the Indo-Pacific. This move to bridge the gap between Asia and Europe, traditionally perceived as separate geopolitical theatres, was hastened by Russia’s conflict in Ukraine and its alliance with China. However, these developments pose challenges and opportunities for India.
The Emergence of New Eurasia
China and Russia were the pathbreakers in changing the geopolitical dynamics in Eurasia, forging an alliance without limits, just before the Russia-Ukraine War. China refrained from taking sides in Europe’s disputes with Russia, despite its efforts to woo Europe since the 1990s.
Eurasian Policies Across Different Countries
USA’s Interests in Eurasia: Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy doesn’t sufficiently account for Eurasia’s rise. Its interests are primarily in areas far from Eurasian epicenter – the western Pacific and the South China Sea. Nevertheless, as China’s challenge grows in the Indo-Pacific maritime domain, Washington is reassessing its strategic commitments to Eurasia.
China, A Major Player in Eurasia: The dramatic rise of China manifests in its strategic assertiveness, expanding economic power, and rising political influence. Its quest for a security presence in Tajikistan, a larger role in Afghanistan, and greater say in the sub-Himalayan region demonstrate its growing influence.
Russia: Despite being a European and Asian power, Russia struggles to integrate with either. It aimed to unite the Russian world through the occupation of Crimea in 2014 and invasion of Ukraine, resulting in sour ties with the West.
India’s Eurasian Policy
India has been formulating a Eurasian strategy, evident in the 2021 Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan. However, tensions with Pakistan continue to pose challenges as they refused to engage with India on Afghanistan. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) aims to bring Eurasia closer, proving to be a commendable initiative, despite geopolitical challenges.
Challenges and Potential
For India, balancing act between maritime coalition — the QUAD — in the Indo-Pacific and continental coalitions led by Russia and China has become challenging due to increasing conflict. But opportunities also abound, particularly enhancing strategic capabilities in partnership with the US and Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
The Path Forward
India needs to focus on developing a robust “Eurasian” policy similar to Japan and South Korea. As the Indo-Pacific represents Delhi’s new maritime geopolitics, Eurasia involves the realignment of India’s continental strategy. Despite multiple contradictions, India should not hold back and pursue a proactive strategy in Eurasia.
This analysis lays the foundation for understanding the strategies needed to enhance India’s position in these regions, keeping the global dynamics and geopolitical constructs in mind. The direction rests in the hands of policymakers who have the ball in their court to seize these emerging opportunities.
