The Gross Domestic Climate Risk ranking, carried out by the Cross Dependency Initiative (XDI), presents an alarming scenario for India. Nine states, namely Punjab, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Kerala and Assam, have made it to the list of the 50 high-risk states. For context, XDI is a global organisation focused on delivering climate risk analysis for regions, banks, and companies.
More about the Report
This report is centered around the calculation of ‘Physical climate risk’ to built environments, including buildings and properties, spread across 2,600 States and provinces globally by 2050. The Aggregated Damage Ratio (ADR) assigned to each region signifies the total damage that a region’s built environment is projected to sustain by 2050, with a higher ADR pointing to higher risk levels.
Report Findings: Identifying Vulnerabilities
Risk arises from eight types of climate change hazards which include riverine and surface flooding, coastal inundation (coastal flooding), extreme heat, forest fire, soil movement (drought-related), extreme wind, and freeze thaw. The most significant damages to global infrastructure arise mostly from “riverine and surface flooding or flooding coupled with coastal inundation”.
Global Highlights from the Report
Interestingly, the report highlights that 80% of the 50 provinces facing the highest climate risk to their physical infrastructure by 2050 are in China, the US, and India. China’s Jiangsu and Shandong are at the top of the global ranking, followed by the US with 18 regions in the top 100 list. Asia dominates the chart with 114 of the top 200 regions located in the continent, which include Pakistan, Indonesia, and most South East Asian countries.
India Specific Findings: Rising Climate Risk
Under high emissions scenarios such as the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, high-risk provinces in the country will witness an average of 110% increase in damage risk by 2050. Currently, with a 0.8 degree rise in temperature, 27 states and more than three-quarters of India’s districts are extreme event hotspots, accounting for a 5% loss in GDP. If global warming surpasses the 2-degree threshold, climate-vulnerable states in India could lose over 10% of their gross state domestic product (GSDP).
Bihar, Assam, and Tamil Nadu have the highest ADR among Indian states. Assam is on track to witness a whopping increase in climate risk, estimated to rise up to 330% by 2050. The state has experienced a dramatic increase in flood events since 2011.
Report Significance: Informing Investment and Infrastructure Planning
The ranking data provides valuable information for investors, as economic activity and property wealth often coincide with extensively built-up areas. It aids in promoting climate resilient investments, in conjunction with adaptation measures and infrastructure planning executed by state and provincial governments.
The finance industry can use this data to directly compare industrial hubs like Mumbai, New York, and Berlin, thus assessing the vulnerability of global supply chains.
India’s Response to Climate Change: Global Leadership and Domestic Measures
In response to climate change, India has established its leadership through initiatives like the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI). India’s revised Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) reflect aggressive climate targets set for 2030.
Transport sector reforms, including an accelerated transition to e-mobility through the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles Scheme, show India’s commitment towards reducing emissions. A voluntary vehicle scrapping policy to phase out old and unfit vehicles complements these efforts.
India’s Commitment to EVs
India is among the few nations supporting the global EV30@30 campaign, aiming for at least 30% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2030. India’s climate change approach, encapsulated in the “Panchamrit” presented at UNFCCC COP26 in Glasgow, aligns well with this commitment.
Government Schemes: Role in Climate Action
Government schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, which helped shift 88 million households from coal-based cooking fuels to LPG connections, demonstrate practical action towards climate change mitigation.
Role of Industries in Low-Carbon Transition
Both public and private sectors in India are playing a role in meeting climate challenges, driven by increased customer and investor awareness, as well as enhanced regulatory and disclosure requirements.
Focus on Hydrogen Energy and Trade Efficiency
The government’s Hydrogen Energy Mission aims at promoting the generation of hydrogen from green power resources. Simultaneously, the Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) mechanism is designed to further accelerate and incentivize energy efficiency in high energy-consuming industries.
