The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) recently disclosed that the world is witnessing a decline in nuclear arms, but the ones in existence are being upgraded and escalating in size. As of the start of 2019, countries such as the United States, Russia, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea collectively held approximately 13,865 nuclear weapons, a reduction of 600 from the preceding year. Despite the decrease, there are still valid concerns as a significant number of these arms are going through updates and enlargements, especially in countries like China, India, and Pakistan.
Drop in Nuclear Arms Largely Due to US and Russia
The decrease in nuclear weaponry over recent years can be chiefly credited to the concerted efforts by the US and Russia, who together possess more than 90 percent of the world’s nuclear arsenal. This is partly a result of the New START treaty, inked in 2010 between the two countries, which puts a cap on the number of active warheads and facilitates the removal of outdated Cold War-era warheads. However, this treaty is poised to expire in 2021, with no signs of serious discussions regarding its extension.
The Role of the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)
The NPT has proved instrumental in restraining the proliferation of nuclear arms. Thanks to the efforts under the NPT, there has been a dramatic reduction in the number of nuclear warheads since their peak in the mid-1980s when approximately 70,000 nuclear warheads were recorded globally.
The Modernisation and Expansion of Nuclear Arms
While the overall number of nuclear arms has seen a drop, modernisation coupled with the increasing size of these arms is a cause for concern. A SIPRI report has raised alarms over the escalating nuclear armament on both sides of the India-Pakistan border, and the potential hazards of a conventional conflict evolving into a nuclear war.
| Country | Nuclear Weapons (2019) | Change from 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 6480 | -300 |
| Russia | 6375 | -350 |
| Britain | 200 | No change |
| France | 300 | No change |
| China | 290 | +10 |
| India | 130-140 | +10-15 |
| Pakistan | 150-160 | +20-25 |
| Israel | 80-90 | No change |
| North Korea | 20-30 | +5-10 |
Global Disarmament – A Timeline of Setbacks
Global disarmament initiatives were dealt a blow when, in February 2019, the United States declared that it would withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. This prompted Russia to announce their suspension of participation as well. The INF treaty, signed between the US and then Soviet Union in 1987, aimed to eliminate and permanently renounce all of their nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers.
About the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)
Established in 1966, the SIPRI is an independent international institute focused on research into conflicts, armaments, arms control and disarmament. It offers data, analysis, and recommendations to policymakers, researchers, and media based on open sources.
The NPT, a landmark international treaty signed in 1968 and enforced from 1970, aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament. It represents the only binding commitment in a multilateral treaty towards the goal of disarmament by nuclear-weapon States. Presently, 191 States are part of the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.