Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations and Tehreek-e-Taliban Conflict

Recent tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have escalated due to repeated border clashes. Despite an agreement reached in Doha, Pakistan holds the Afghan Taliban responsible for providing safe haven to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The TTP’s violent activities in Pakistan, especially in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, remain the core issue straining bilateral relations.

Extent of Violence in Pakistan

In 2024, Pakistan experienced its worst militant violence in a decade. Over 1,600 people died, including around 680 security personnel. Military operations exceeded 59,000, killing roughly 900 militants. The KP and Balochistan provinces accounted for 94% of casualties, with KP alone responsible for 63%. Violence has surged since 2021 after a decline during 2016-2020. Contrary to expectations, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan did not reduce militancy in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

TTP’s Demands and Political Context

The TTP demands the reversal of the 2018 merger of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) with KP. They seek the removal of security forces and the imposition of Shariah law. This reflects their aim to control the tribal regions independently. The 25th constitutional amendment integrated FATA into KP, granting political representation and judicial access, which the TTP opposes.

Historical and Colonial Legacy

The tribal regions have a colonial legacy as buffer zones created by the British between India and Afghanistan. The Frontier Crime Regulation (FCR) administered these areas separately without democratic institutions. Pakistan continued this policy post-independence, avoiding full federal control. This vacuum allowed militant groups like the TTP to emerge and thrive.

Strategic Depth and Civil-Military Dynamics

Pakistan’s military viewed the tribal areas as strategic depth in Afghanistan during the Soviet and U.S. invasions. Political parties and local governance were seen as obstacles to this policy. The absence of democratic structures facilitated the rise of extremist groups. Pakistan’s military and political establishments have had inconsistent approaches to the TTP, alternating between military action and negotiations.

Afghan Taliban and TTP Linkages

The TTP was formed as a local ally of the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda, providing support during the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. Despite hopes, the Afghan Taliban did not sever ties with the TTP after the U.S. withdrawal in 2021. The Afghan Taliban prioritise combating Daesh in Afghanistan, viewing TTP splinter groups joining Daesh as a serious threat.

Domestic Political Challenges

Pakistan has failed to promote alternative political voices in the tribal areas. Religious parties dominate, but they represent an older generation. The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), representing youth aspirations, has been suppressed. The lack of legitimate political outlets fuels the TTP’s influence.

External Blame and Internal Realities

Pakistan attributes the TTP problem to external support from Afghanistan and India, branding the TTP as Fitna-al-Khwarij. This narrative shifts blame from internal governance failures. However, unilateral military actions and border closures risk alienating the Afghan population, potentially worsening Pakistan’s security environment.

Need for New Strategies

The tribal regions are changing socially and demographically. Old strategies from the 1980s are ineffective. Engaging with new political forces like PTM and PTI could help address local grievances. Constructive dialogue with Afghanistan is crucial to avoid further destabilisation.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically discuss the impact of colonial-era policies on contemporary conflicts in South Asia, with reference to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan.
2. Analyse the role of non-state actors like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in shaping Pakistan’s internal security and foreign policy towards Afghanistan.
3. Examine the challenges of integrating tribal regions into mainstream political frameworks and the implications for regional stability and governance.
4. Estimate the effects of cross-border militancy on India-Pakistan relations and suggest diplomatic measures to mitigate these tensions.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically discuss the impact of colonial-era policies on contemporary conflicts in South Asia, with reference to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan.

1. British created FATA as a buffer zone administered under Frontier Crime Regulation (FCR), excluding democratic governance.
2. Post-independence Pakistan continued indirect control, avoiding federal writ and democratic institutions in FATA.
3. Lack of political representation and judicial access created a governance vacuum exploited by militant groups like the TTP.
4. Colonial legacy encourageed isolation and underdevelopment, fueling local resentment and insurgency.
5. FATA’s merger with KP in 2018 aimed to reverse colonial-era policies but faced resistance from groups like TTP.
6. Colonial policies entrenched a militarized approach, complicating peace and integration efforts .

2. Analyse the role of non-state actors like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in shaping Pakistan’s internal security and foreign policy towards Afghanistan.

1. TTP emerged as a militant group exploiting governance vacuums in tribal areas, causing severe internal security challenges.
2. High violence levels in KP and Balochistan provinces destabilize Pakistan’s internal security landscape.
3. Afghan Taliban’s provision of safe haven to TTP complicates Pakistan-Afghanistan relations and border security.
4. Pakistan’s foreign policy is influenced by the need to manage Afghan Taliban-TTP ties and cross-border militancy.
5. Inconsistent Pakistani state approach oscillates between military operations and negotiations with TTP.
6. Blaming external actors (Afghan Taliban, India) shifts focus from internal governance failures, impacting diplomatic posture.

3. Examine the challenges of integrating tribal regions into mainstream political frameworks and the implications for regional stability and governance.

1. Historical exclusion of tribal areas from political representation and judicial systems created alienation.
2. 2018 merger of FATA into KP introduced political and legal integration but faced opposition from militants like TTP.
3. Absence of credible alternative political voices fuels extremist influence; suppression of PTM limits youth representation.
4. Social and demographic changes require new political narratives beyond old religious parties.
5. Security operations without political inclusion risk perpetuating violence and instability.
6. Successful integration essential for sustainable governance, reducing militancy and improving regional stability.

4. Estimate the effects of cross-border militancy on India-Pakistan relations and suggest diplomatic measures to mitigate these tensions.

1. Cross-border militancy heightens mistrust and hostility, exacerbating India-Pakistan security dilemmas.
2. Pakistan’s narrative blaming external support (India, Afghan Taliban) fuels diplomatic tensions.
3. Frequent border clashes and militant attacks undermine peace initiatives and dialogue efforts.
4. Confidence-building measures like joint border management and intelligence sharing could reduce incidents.
5. Multilateral engagement involving Afghanistan’s stability is crucial for curbing militancy spillover.
6. Promoting political solutions addressing root causes in tribal regions can indirectly ease bilateral tensions.