Recently, Pakistan has brought up the idea of Taliban-led Afghanistan becoming part of the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) infrastructure project. Such a move would involve building the Peshawar-Kabul motorway as a CPEC extension in Afghanistan. Consequently, India’s concerns have grown over economic, political and security aspects, due to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and China’s increasing influence through its ambitious CPEC expansion.
About the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
The CPEC is a bilateral initiative between Pakistan and China, designed to enhance connectivity across Pakistan. This network of highways, railways, and pipelines is complemented by numerous energy, industrial, and other infrastructural development projects. The overarching aim is to connect China’s Western region (Xinjiang province) to Gwadar Port in Balochistan, Pakistan, via Khunjerab Pass in Pakistan’s Northern regions. This link offers China direct access to the Middle East and Africa from Gwadar Port, thereby also granting access to the Indian Ocean. CPEC forms part of the broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which was launched in 2013 with the intention of uniting Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Gulf region, Africa and Europe through a network of land and sea routes. However, this has been met with considerable criticism from India, due to the CPEC crossing through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, a disputed territory between India and Pakistan.
Implications of Afghanistan’s Potential CPEC Involvement for India
If Afghanistan were to join the CPEC, it could drive a number of adverse consequences for India. Firstly, China would step in to fill the economic void left by the recent withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, advancing its BRI initiatives. Secondly, India could see its investment in Iran’s Chabahar port undermined, potentially destabilising the India-Iran-Afghanistan trilateral agreement that provides Afghanistan with sea access via Chabahar port. Furthermore, India stands to lose its economic influence and strategic partnership with Afghanistan, as efforts to expand the CPEC into Afghanistan threaten to undermine India’s role. Over the years, India has been the largest regional donor to Afghanistan, committing over US$2 billion towards development projects spanning the construction of roads, power plants, dams, parliament buildings, and much more.
Strategic and Security Concerns for India
Given India’s already limited strategic foothold in Afghanistan, China is better positioned to leverage its strategic advantages in the country. Beyond economic development, Afghanistan’s inclusion in the CPEC could bolster Pakistan’s strategic advantage over India. This could result in heightened risk of terrorism against India from Pakistan. Additionally, amidst existing issues with CPEC, India would also be concerned about the likelihood of China acquiring control of the Bagram air force base in Afghanistan. Lastly, China may potentially exploit Afghanistan’s rich minerals and lucrative rare-earth mines through the CPEC extension.
Potential Advantages and Disadvantages
For the CPEC’s successful implementation in Afghanistan, it’s crucial for China to ensure stability in the region. Improved infrastructure and security conditions in Afghanistan could potentially enable smoother economic and trade activities for India. However, given the hostile attitudes of China, Pakistan, and the Taliban towards India, Afghanistan’s participation in the CPEC will arguably offer strategic benefits to China while leading to losses for India.
