The recent denial of a meeting with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), for a delegation led by the Pakistan Army Chief, highlights the growing chasm between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. This can largely be attributed to Saudi Arabia’s changing perspective towards India. Under the guidance of MBS, Saudi Arabia has been gradually fostering a supportive relationship with India as part of its strategy to diversify its oil-dependent economy.
Presently, Saudi Arabia is India’s fourth-largest trading partner, after China, the USA and Japan. With India importing around 18% of its crude oil requirement and a significant amount of LPG from Saudi Arabia, the latter’s value has further escalated following India’s discontinuation of oil imports from Iran due to possible sanctions by the US.
The Growing Influence of China
The alliance between Pakistan and China, self-described as “all-weather allies” and “iron brothers”, continues to strengthen. Over the past year, China has backed Pakistan on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir thrice at the United Nations Security Council. China has also emerged as Pakistan’s principal benefactor, primarily through its investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Although Saudi Arabia contributed USD 10 billion towards CPEC projects, Pakistan’s diplomatic and economic focus now leans heavily towards Beijing.
Implications for India
India has traditionally maintained favourable ties with the Arab world, utilising diplomatic channels to encourage business and investments. While India has been closely monitoring the evolving dynamics between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, it has refrained from any public comments. The silence of Saudi on contentious issues such as Jammu and Kashmir and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) – National Register of Citizens (NRC), has emboldened India.
However, closer relations between China and Pakistan do present concerns for India, especially amidst ongoing tensions. But, with Saudi Arabia’s support, India might manage to maintain a strategic advantage over Pakistan.
A Historical Overview of Saudi-Pakistan Relations
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have a history of cooperation and support, with the 1971 Indo-Pak war serving as a notable example. Despite emerging differences on issues such as Jammu and Kashmir and the handling of terror attacks, their relations have largely been symbiotic.
However, recent years are witnessing an increasing strain on these relations. Most notably, Pakistan’s inability to repay a loan tranche to Saudi Arabia and its attempts to curry favour with Turkey and Malaysia have aggravated the rift. Saudi Arabia has responded by distancing itself from Pakistan’s reconciliation efforts and withholding financial aid.
The Way Forward
Saudi Arabia, seeking to avoid conflict and maintain regional stability, has shown a clear preference for fostering economic opportunities. It has refrained from meddling in sensitive issues like Kashmir in India and terrorism in Pakistan. For India, the nascent stage of alignment between Pakistan, China and Saudi Arabia is crucial. How India capitalises on this situation will significantly mould the future of these intricate relationships. Only time will tell how these layered relations unfold.
