Pakistan’s Terror Strategy and ISIS-Khorasan Expansion

Recent developments reveal Pakistan’s renewed terror strategy involving an alliance between Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and ISIS’s Khorasan Province (ISKP). This move aims to strengthen terror networks targeting India and the broader South Asian region. Pakistan’s approach blends global and regional jihadist groups to maintain strategic depth in Afghanistan and counter internal threats. The evolving dynamics pose challenges for regional security.

Pakistan’s Dual Terror Strategy

Pakistan employs a dual terror strategy focused on three key goals. First, it counters internal insurgencies like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch separatists. Second, it seeks influence in Afghanistan by undermining Taliban leadership. Third, it supports global jihadist groups to boost India-centric terror outfits. This approach allows Pakistan plausible deniability while covertly backing militant groups.

Role of ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISKP)

ISKP, a Daesh affiliate, has expanded beyond eastern Afghanistan into northern and western regions. It targets the Taliban and rival groups such as TTP to destabilise Afghanistan’s governance. Pakistan’s tacit agreement with ISKP allows the group to operate freely in exchange for attacks against the Taliban. ISKP’s growing presence strengthens its alliance with LeT, enhancing terror capabilities against India and Afghanistan.

Historical Context of Pakistan’s Jihad Networks

Pakistan’s involvement in jihadist networks dates back to the Soviet-Afghan war. The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) supported Afghan Mujahideen and global jihadists like Al-Qaeda. Training camps in Pakistan facilitated the rise of groups hostile to India. The ‘bleed India with a thousand cuts’ doctrine emerged in the 1980s, encouraging Kashmir-centric militancy backed by Pakistan through financial and logistical support.

Proxy Warfare and Terror Alliances

Pakistan’s ISI has orchestrated alliances among jihadist groups despite ideological differences. It has backed Al-Qaeda, JeM, LeT, and now ISKP to maintain pressure on India. These groups share resources and training, creating a complex terror web. The 2002 Daniel Pearl kidnapping exemplified this cooperation. However, alliances with hardline groups like ISKP carry risks, as their ultimate goals may conflict with Pakistan’s interests.

Implications for Regional Security

The convergence of global and regional jihadist networks complicates security in South Asia. Pakistan’s strategy strengthens terror groups while undermining stability in Afghanistan. This threatens India and neighbouring countries. The evolving terror landscape demands a robust and integrated response from India and its partners to counter these multifaceted threats.

India’s Strategic Response

India must adopt a proactive approach to counterterrorism. Strengthening diplomatic ties with the Taliban can disrupt Pakistan’s strategic depth in Afghanistan. Integrated deterrence and network-based operations are essential to foil terror plans in Jammu and Kashmir. Enhanced intelligence sharing and regional cooperation will help contain the expanding jihadist threat.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically discuss Pakistan’s use of proxy warfare in South Asia and its impact on regional security.
2. Analyse the role of global jihadist networks like ISIS and Al-Qaeda in shaping South Asian terrorism. Discuss in the light of their evolving strategies.
3. Taking the example of India’s counter-terrorism measures, examine the challenges and opportunities in engaging with non-state actors like the Taliban in Afghanistan.
4. What is the significance of strategic depth in Pakistan’s foreign policy? How does it influence its relations with Afghanistan and India?

Answer Hints:

1. Critically discuss Pakistan’s use of proxy warfare in South Asia and its impact on regional security.

1. Pakistan employs proxy groups (LeT, JeM, TTP) to wage asymmetric warfare against India, especially in Kashmir.
2. ISI provides financial, logistical, and training support to these terror outfits for plausible deniability.
3. Proxy warfare destabilizes South Asia by fueling insurgencies, cross-border terrorism, and communal violence.
4. It complicates diplomatic relations and undermines regional peace initiatives.
5. Proxy groups’ alliances with global jihadists (Al-Qaeda, ISKP) amplify terror threats and transnational terrorism.
6. However, reliance on proxies risks blowback, as extremist groups may turn against Pakistan itself.

2. Analyse the role of global jihadist networks like ISIS and Al-Qaeda in shaping South Asian terrorism. Discuss in the light of their evolving strategies.

1. Global jihadists provide ideological legitimacy, training, and funding to regional terror groups in South Asia.
2. Al-Qaeda’s precursor, MAK, was founded in Pakistan during the Soviet-Afghan war, linking global jihad with regional militancy.
3. ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISKP) has expanded territorial reach and targets both Taliban and rival groups, destabilizing Afghanistan.
4. These groups adapt strategies by forming alliances (e.g., ISKP-LeT) to extend operational capabilities against India and Afghanistan.
5. Their evolving tactics include targeted assassinations, embassy bombings, and cross-border attacks.
6. Global jihadists’ presence complicates counterterrorism as they transcend national boundaries and exploit regional conflicts.

3. Taking the example of India’s counter-terrorism measures, examine the challenges and opportunities in engaging with non-state actors like the Taliban in Afghanistan.

1. Engagement with Taliban offers diplomatic leverage to counter Pakistan’s strategic depth in Afghanistan.
2. Challenges include Taliban’s ideological links with terror groups and internal factionalism affecting reliability.
3. India’s minimal but growing ties can facilitate intelligence sharing and reduce cross-border terrorism.
4. Opportunities exist to expand India’s influence in Central and South Asia through economic and strategic cooperation.
5. Integrated deterrence and network-based counterterrorism can be enhanced through Taliban cooperation.
6. Risks include Taliban’s potential alignment with Pakistan-backed groups, limiting India’s strategic gains.

4. What is the significance of strategic depth in Pakistan’s foreign policy? How does it influence its relations with Afghanistan and India?

1. Strategic depth aims to secure a friendly or pliant Afghanistan to counter India and safeguard Pakistan’s western border.
2. It allows Pakistan to use Afghan territory for proxy warfare and logistical support to terror groups targeting India.
3. Pakistan undermines Taliban leadership to maintain influence and prevent hostile regimes in Kabul.
4. The policy fuels instability in Afghanistan, complicating peace efforts and regional security.
5. It strains Pakistan-India relations by facilitating cross-border terrorism and insurgency in Kashmir.
6. Strategic depth reflects Pakistan’s broader security doctrine prioritizing India containment over regional stability.