A recent study conducted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) forecasts a grim picture of the global poverty situation in the aftermath of Covid-19. The research suggests that the severe, long-lasting effects of the virus could thrust an additional 207 million people into extreme poverty by 2030, thereby raising the total number of extremely impoverished people worldwide to over a billion. This research is a product of an ongoing collaboration between the UNDP and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver, USA.
Assessing Sustainable Development Goals Post-Covid19
The study evaluates the potential impact of various Covid-19 recovery scenarios on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By considering each scenario’s multidimensional effects, the study paints a comprehensive picture of how the pandemic could shape global development over the next ten years.
Findings of the Study: ‘Covid Baseline’ and ‘High Damage’ Scenarios
Under the assumptions of a ‘Covid Baseline’ scenario, which considers the current mortality rates and the most recent growth projection from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the study predicts that 44 million people could experience extreme poverty due to the pandemic by 2030. Extreme poverty is defined by the World Bank as surviving on less than 1.90 USD per day.
In contrast, the ‘High Damage’ scenario sketches a more dire picture. It postulates that if the globe experiences protracted recovery from Covid-19, an additional 207 million individuals could be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030. This situation could increase female poverty by an additional 102 million. A striking revelation from the ‘High Damage’ scenario is the likelihood of 80% of the economic crisis resulting from Covid-19 persisting a decade from now due to productivity loss.
Suggestions for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
The study, however, also provides some potential solutions. It proposes that a focused set of investments in Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) over the next decade could actually reverse the rise of extreme poverty. These investments would be targeted towards social protection, governance improvements, digitalisation and green economy initiatives.
Implementing these ambitious SDG measures would not only prevent the escalation of extreme poverty but could exceed the pre-pandemic development trajectory. Under the ‘SDG Push’ scenario, an additional 146 million people could be lifted out of extreme poverty, narrowing the gender poverty gap and reducing the female poverty headcount by 74 million.
Behavioural Changes for SDG Interventions
Key for achieving these goals are behavioural changes both at the level of governance and among individuals. Improvements in the effectiveness and efficiency of governance are crucial, along with shifts in food, energy and water consumption patterns. Global collaboration for climate action, additional investments in Covid-19 recovery and an increased emphasis on improved broadband access and technology innovation are equally important.
The UNDP’s research underlines the considerable challenges the world faces in the wake of Covid-19 but also highlights the potential for focused, sustainable solutions to help minimise the impact of the pandemic on global poverty levels.