The Prime Minister of India recently issued a call to arms against a perceived population explosion during his 73rd Independence Day speech. But as he demanded greater social awareness to counteract this issue, current trends suggest that the country has been steadily improving its fertility rates over time.
Understanding the Total Fertility Rate
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of a nation represents the number of children a woman is expected to give birth to by the time she reaches the end of her childbearing years. The latest figures from 2017 reveal that India’s national TFR is 2.2, just marginally above the replacement rate of 2.1, according to the Sample Registration System (SRS) under the Registrar General of India (RGI).
The replacement rate is essentially the average number of children each woman needs to bear in order to maintain a stable population size.
The Role of the Sample Registration System (SRS)
The SRS provides an invaluable demographic survey, offering annual reliable estimates of birth rates, death rates, infant mortality rates and other key fertility and mortality indicators. The data gathered helps provide insight at both national and sub-national levels.
The SRS utilises part-time enumerators, including teachers and anganwadi workers, to regularly record births and deaths in selected sample areas. A separate six-monthly survey is conducted independently by SRS supervisors. The information obtained from these two independent channels is then cross-verified for accuracy.
The SRS bases its samples on the latest census frame and replaces them every ten years.
Examining State-Wise TFR Figures
There are substantial deviations in TFR among states. Seven states, namely Uttar Pradesh (3.0), Bihar (3.2), Madhya Pradesh (2.7), Rajasthan (2.6), Assam (2.3), Chhattisgarh (2.4) and Jharkhand (2.5) recorded a TFR higher than the national average of 2.2. In terms of population size based on the 2011 Census, these states account for about 45% of India’s total populace.
Similarly, Gujarat and Haryana recorded a TFR of 2.2 as well. Although this is above the replacement rate, it matches the national average.
States with Lower TFR than National Average
Affluent southern states such as Kerala (1.7), Tamil Nadu (1.6), Karnataka (1.7), Maharashtra (1.7), Andhra Pradesh (1.6) and Telangana (1.7) have displayed fertility rates below the required rate for population replacement. West Bengal (1.6), Jammu and Kashmir (1.6) and Odisha (1.9) reported lower TFRs in 2017 as well.
Facts about Fertility Rates in India
| Year | National TFR |
|---|---|
| 1971 | 5.2 |
| 1981 | 4.5 |
| 1991 | 3.6 |
| 2017 | 2.2 |
Determining Factors for TFR Trends
The 2017 report underscored that TFR has decreased from 5.2 to 4.5 between 1971 and 1981 and dropped further to 2.2 between 1991 and 2017. Factors such as rural-urban divide and women’s literacy levels have contributed to this decline.
For example, the SRS indicates that an “illiterate” woman can be expected to bear approximately 2.9 children, whereas a “literate” woman tends to give birth to fewer children (2.1). For educated women who are graduates or above, the average TFR is even lower, at 1.4 children.
Similarly, urban areas typically register lower fertility rates compared to rural regions. The dwindling fertility rates are mirrored in the decadal population growth according to the latest census data. After the 1971 Census, a decrease in population growth was noted during the period between the 2001 and 2011 Census.