This article provides an in-depth insight into the ongoing conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the recent surge in protests over potential Armenian concessions, and how these ongoing geopolitical tensions affect India’s interests.
Understanding the Nagorno-Karabakh Region
Located within the recognized international boundaries of Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountainous territory densely covered with forests. Despite its official status as part of Azerbaijan, the region is largely populated by ethnic Armenians who reject Azerbaijan’s authority. Following a war in the 1990s, Azerbaijani forces were expelled from the area, allowing the ethnic Armenian majority to establish administrative control over Nagorno-Karabakh, backed by support from Armenia.
The Strategic Importance of Nagorno-Karabakh
Azerbaijan, a nation rich in energy resources, has constructed numerous gas and oil pipelines across the Caucasus region to Turkey and Europe. Several of these pipelines traverse areas close to the conflict zone, potentially making them targets in an open war. The consequence of any such action could be significant, potentially disrupting energy supplies and causing global oil prices to rise.
Origins of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
The roots of this conflict can be traced back to the era preceding Soviet dominance when this region was a point of convergence for the Ottoman, Russian, and Persian empires. However, it wasn’t until the decline of Soviet power in the 1980s that separatist movements within Nagorno-Karabakh began to intensify. After Armenia took control of Nagorno-Karabakh, they handed it over to Armenian rebels.
India’s Role and Interests
India’s involvement with both Armenia and Azerbaijan is complex. A 1995 treaty of friendship and cooperation exists between India and Armenia, which restricts India from providing military or other assistance to Azerbaijan. On the flip side, Indian companies such as ONGC/OVL have invested in Azerbaijani oilfield projects and GAIL is looking to cooperate on LNG. Furthermore, Azerbaijan is part of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) route that connects India with Russia via Central Asia.
Divergent Stances on Kashmir
Armenia unequivocally supports India over the disputed territory of Kashmir, while Azerbaijan tends to side with Pakistan’s narrative on the issue, often promoting it. India does not possess a publicly articulated policy for the South Caucasus region as a whole, which has thus far remained on the periphery of India’s foreign policy radar.
The Way Forward Amidst Conflict
The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh essentially represents a clash between two international principles: territorial integrity, advocated by Azerbaijan, and the right to self-determination, invoked by Nagorno-Karabakh and supported by Armenia. It remains challenging for India to publicly endorse either stance due to potential repercussions on its own territorial disputes.