The geopolitical crisis between Ukraine and Russia has recently escalated, following Russia’s recognition of the rebel regions in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, as independent areas. This move is in direct challenge to the West and fuels concerns of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, particularly as Russia has amassed over 150,000 troops at the Ukraine borders. This presents one of the most serious crises since the Cold War era.
Russia’s Stand: Blaming NATO
Russia holds the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) responsible for the current situation, terming the US-led alliance as a significant threat to its existence. Russia alleges that after the Soviet collapse, Ukraine, which had inherited its historic lands, has been utilized by the West to contain Russia. Russia insists that Western countries guarantee that NATO won’t admit Ukraine or other former Soviet nations as members, halt weapons deployments to Ukraine, and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe. These demands have however been rejected by the western countries.
Background of the Crisis: Ukraine and Russia’s Historical Links
Ukraine and Russia share centuries-long cultural, linguistic and familial links, which have been politically exploited over time. As part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the second-most powerful Soviet republic after Russia, strategically, economically and culturally significant. The conflict has centred on the Donbass region, which includes Donetsk and Luhansk, since Russia invaded and annexed the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014. Over 14,000 lives have been lost in the ensuing conflict, leading to approximately 1.5 million registered Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and severe damage to the local economy.
Minsk Agreements: Unfulfilled Promises
The Minsk agreements, drafted and signed in 2014 and 2015, were intended to resolve the conflict. The agreements included provisions for a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weaponry, exchange of hostages and prisoners, delivery of humanitarian assistance, and acknowledgement of special status by parliament. Despite these comprehensive conditions, the ‘Minsk Conundrum’ arises from Ukraine and Russia’s conflicting interpretations of the agreement, which has led to its non-implementation.
Reactions of Various Nations
In response to Russia’s recent actions, the United States has announced sanctions against new investments, trade, and financing in the two breakaway regions. Other countries like Japan are expected to join the US-led sanctions. The European Union has condemned Russia, branding its actions a flagrant violation of international law. The United Kingdom too has warned of further sanctions, and Australia has termed Russia’s actions unacceptable.
India’s Stand: Diplomacy over Condemnation
Contrary to Western powers, India has maintained a low profile regarding Russia’s intervention in Crimea and has not joined in their condemnation. Instead, India recently proposed quiet and constructive diplomacy at the UN Security Council to avoid escalation of tensions. India’s stand has been welcomed by Russia.
Way Forward: Reviving the Minsk Peace Process
The most plausible resolution for the current situation appears to be a revival of the Minsk peace process. Western countries should encourage both parties to resume talks and uphold their commitments per the Minsk agreement. A diplomatic solution could help Ukraine regain control over its borders and potentially end the threat of a Russian invasion. For Russia, it might provide an assurance that Ukraine will not become a part of NATO and ensure the protection of Russian language and culture under a new federal Constitution in Ukraine.