The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, most notably seen through Operation Ganga and the subsequent evacuation of Indian students in Ukraine, has immediate and future consequences for India. In particular, this situation will affect India’s diplomatic relationships with not only Russia and Ukraine, but also nations like the United States and others in the West. The most important long-term effects, however, are projected to be felt in the area of defence trade, which has a deep-rooted history between India and Russia.
The History of India-Russia Defence Ties
India was highly dependent on Western nations, predominantly Britain, for its arms imports following its post-Independence era. This trend began to diminish in the 1970s as India turned instead towards USSR (now Russia), making it India’s largest defence importer for many years. Russia has supplied vital weapons platforms to India, including nuclear submarines, tanks, guns, aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and more. It is estimated that around 85% of the armed forces’ weapons in India have Russian origins.
Current Defence Equipment from Russia
Russian-made frigates, submarines, destroyers, and aircraft carriers are significant elements of the Indian Navy. For instance, the country’s first submarine, the Foxtrot Class, entered service in 1967. Presently, eight out of the total 16 conventional submarines in the Indian Navy are Kilo class hailing from the Soviet Union.
Additionally, Russia has continuously supported India’s missile programme. Notably, the BrahMos missile, developed jointly with Russia, is poised for export by India. Furthermore, the majority of India’s fighter aircraft, such as Sukhoi and MiG jets, and air tankers are also Russian-made.
Russian Military Exports to India: Its Influence
Russia’s influence in the Indian defence sector is largely due to its willingness to export weapons systems and technologies that other countries do not offer to India. Unlike the US, which mainly provides non-lethal defense technology, Russia offers high-end technology like Brahmos supersonic missiles and S-400 anti-missile systems. Moreover, Russia continues to provide advanced weapons platforms at attractive rates.
The Potential Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Military Supplies
The current conflict between Russia and Ukraine could jeopardize crucial defence deals between India and Russia. One such deal is for the S-400 Triumf air-defence system, which has been under threat of American sanctions. Another key proposal from Russia is to develop six Air Independent Propulsion (AIP-powered) conventional submarines for the Indian Navy under the P75-I project.
India’s Diversification Plans for Arms Import
India has been making a concerted effort to diversify its weapons platform sources, both domestically and internationally. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported a 33% decrease in arms imports by India between 2011–15 and 2016–20. During this period, the USA, previously the second-largest arms supplier to India, saw a significant drop in sales, becoming the fourth-largest supplier in 2016–20 after France and Israel.
As India anticipates increasing threats from Pakistan and China and delays in its plans to produce major arms, it aims to initiate large-scale programs for arms imports. Therefore, the need for India to diversify its base becomes particularly significant to avoid over-reliance on any single nation.
