The ongoing diplomatic engagements between Iran and Saudi Arabia have ignited hope for improved relations, warming up from their frozen state since 2016. Their coming together has far-reaching implications, not only for regional stability but also for countries like India. This article delves into the crucial points surrounding this situation, including the cause of strife, reasons for the normalization of relations, and potential impacts.
The Backstory: Saudi Arabia-Iran Conflict
Saudi Arabia and Iran’s discord dates back to decades ago, fueled mainly by religious factionalism. Both nations follow different branches of Islam – Iran is predominantly Shia Muslim while Saudi Arabia identifies as the leading Sunni Muslim power. The Saudi Arabian monarchy, home to Islam’s birthplace, saw its leadership of the Islamic world challenged in 1979 by Iran’s Islamic revolution.
This led to a regional cold war between these two powerful neighbors, vying for regional dominance. The Arab Spring in 2011 caused political instability throughout the region, which Iran and Saudi Arabia exploited to expand their influence. External powers such as the U.S. and Israel played a significant role in exacerbating this conflict.
Although there were no direct fights between the two countries, they engaged in various proxy wars, supporting rival sides and militias in the region. For instance, Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of backing the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
One major flashpoint was in 2016, following Saudi Arabia’s execution of Shiite Muslim cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. This triggered attacks on Saudi diplomatic missions by many Iranian protesters.
Reasons Leading towards Normalization of Relations
Several factors are contributing to the budding détente, including Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 Strategy. Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, Saudi Arabia realized it needs to de-escalate tensions with Iran to attract serious investment in areas like its economy, defense, tourism, and renewable energy.
Regional compromises are also playing a role. Saudi Arabia is working towards reinstating Syria’s power holder, Bashar Assad, in the Arab League – a move appreciated by Iran. The new U.S. administration and its changed focus towards the Indo-pacific region could be another reason behind Saudi Arabia softening its stance on Iran.
Potential Impact of Normalization of Relations
The normalization of relations may positively affect several areas, including the Israel-Palestine conflict. It could provide a conducive environment for tackling this issue effectively.
Moreover, it could stabilize oil markets – an industry vital to both Iran and Saudi Arabia’s economies. It would ensure steady revenues for all producing countries and lend predictability to Saudi Arabia and Iran’s economic planners.
The Road Ahead: Role of India and Other Factors
India, having good diplomatic ties with both countries, could be impacted in mixed ways by these developments. While higher oil prices might negatively affect India’s trade balance, it might also open up opportunities for easing investments and connectivity projects across the region.
In the following steps, Iran needs to step up its diplomatic efforts by publicly supporting a ceasefire in Yemen. Also, the U.S.’s clarity on its sanctions over Iran is crucial in normalizing relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
This unfolding scenario thus promises a new regional dynamic, opening up opportunities and challenges alike. The world waits with bated breath to see how these diplomatic engagements unravel in the future.