The Middle Eastern region is a hotbed for geopolitical activity, with the recent execution of 81 people by Saudi Arabia intensifying political tensions. These executions resulted in Iran suspending talks with Saudi Arabia, further complicating the already volatile dynamics of West Asia. The strained relation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two regional rivals who severed diplomatic ties in 2016, had seen some respite with the initiation of direct talks hosted by Iraq in 2021.
Background of Saudi Arabia-Iran Conflict
The discord between Saudi Arabia and Iran is deep-rooted in history and varies across religious, political and territorial dimensions. The primary difference arises from their adherence to different branches of Islam – Iran is predominantly Shia Muslim, whilst Saudi Arabia is a leading power among Sunni Muslims.
Saudi Arabia, as a monarchy and the birthplace of Islam, has always envisioned itself as the leader of the Muslim world. This position was contested by Iran during the 1979 Islamic revolution when it aimed to export its revolutionary theocracy model beyond its borders.
The tussle for dominance inflated to a regional Cold War, with the two nations exploiting the political instability caused by uprisings across the Arab world. External powers such as the US and Israel also played a role in exacerbating the conflict.
Proxy Wars and the 2016 Flash Point
The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran extended to proxy wars where each country supported rival sides and militias. An example of this is the support towards Houthi rebels in Yemen. The flashpoint came in 2016 when Iranian protestors attacked Saudi diplomatic missions following the execution of Shiite Muslim cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr by Saudi Arabia.
Possible Impact of Normalization of Relations
Potential normalization of ties could have positive implications on regional disputes such as the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. Economic implications could include the stabilization of the oil market, ensuring steady revenues for both countries and predictability for economic planners.
India’s Role
The stabilization of relations could have mixed impacts on India which maintains good diplomatic relations with both countries. While higher oil prices could affect India’s balance of trade negatively, it could also ease investments and boost connectivity projects across the region.
Way Forward
For normalization to occur, Iran needs to make diplomatic efforts by publicly supporting a cease-fire in Yemen. Further, clarity on US sanctions over Iran is a critical factor that will influence the normalization process. The development of Chabahar Port by India has been critical for the country’s access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, reducing its dependence on Pakistan.