Future-proofing represents a proactive approach where anticipated future scenarios are analyzed, and strategic methods are developed to minimize their adverse impacts. The concept is gaining significant traction in the agricultural sector, primarily due to unpredictable weather patterns triggered by climate change. These erratic environmental shifts have led to the emergence of unknown pathogens, causing significant yield losses in various crops worldwide.
Visible Impact on Crop Health: Rapid Apple Decline and Wheat Blast
One glaring example of this problem is the sudden decline observed in apple crops across multiple states in the USA, colloquially termed as Rapid Apple Decline. Despite concerted scientific investigations, no specific pathogen has been identified responsible for this decline. However, the consensus points towards climate change effects and its disrupting influence on bacteria, fungi, and virus behavior.
Similarly, India is encountering a sharp drop in wheat yield due to an unfamiliar phenomenon known as “wheat blast”. This disease signifies the growing risk to global food security due to increased pest proliferation, diseases, and abiotic stress caused by climate change. Over the past four decades, fungal diseases have increased four-fold. Among these, blast diseases present themselves as serious threats to food security, affecting more than 50 species of grasses, including two principal food crops – rice and wheat.
Effect of Climate Change: The Case of Bangladesh’s Wheat Blast
A recent instance of the severe impact of climate change on agriculture was witnessed during the wheat blast outbreak in Bangladesh in 2016. It damaged the wheat crop across eight districts, with the yield loss reaching up to a staggering 100%. This wheat blast epidemic was exacerbated due to untimely rainfall and above-average winter temperatures, both being by-products of the changing climate.
| Year | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Wheat Blast outbreak in Bangladesh | Up to 100% yield loss in 8 districts |
| 2021 | Rapid Apple Decline in USA | Significant yield reduction across multiple states |
| 2021 | Wheat Blast in India | Sharp drop in wheat production |
Calls to Future-Proof Agricultural Products
In the face of such widespread agricultural upheavals, scientists are urging that agricultural products be future-proofed. Years of selective breeding have optimized crop genomes for high yield but at the expense of genetic diversity. It is this diversity that is vital for maintaining crop health as it provides resilience against diseases, pests, and environmental stress.
Role of Genetic Diversity in Crop Survival
Genetic diversity acts as a buffer, enabling populations to adapt to changing environments. A population rich in genetic variation will be better equipped to evolve in alignment with new environmental conditions. During extreme situations like drought or disease epidemics, this diversity could be the determining factor for the survival of the population. However, the domestication process has led to decreased genetic diversity due to the propagation of select plant species.
Future-Proofing Strategy: Leveraging Biotechnology
Despite being ill-suited to agriculture, wild crop varieties are known to possess significantly higher genetic diversity than their domesticated counterparts. By employing biotechnological methods, the genes from these pest-resistant wild varieties can be used to future-proof existing crop species. This approach might be a crucial step towards ensuring sustainable agricultural practices in an increasingly unpredictable climate.
