In recent studies conducted, there’s been a projection suggesting that global warming is going to increase the planet’s temperature by two degrees Celsius by 2050. This projection contradicts the predictions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), causing concern among environmentalists and governments alike. The study used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to make this prediction, drawing potential consequences for climate change worldwide.
Predicting Global Temperature Rises
The research utilized the ANN, an intelligent software that functions similar to a human brain. Using this software, scientists predicted the timespan needed to reach the 1.5°C and 2°C thresholds of global temperature rise. Currently, we have already experienced a 1.1°C rise compared to the averages between 1850 and 1900.
A Deviation from Previous Projections
Unlike prior IPCC assessments, the latest study suggests a higher likelihood of reaching the 2°C threshold even under a low-emission scenario. This finding could undermine the goals set out in the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the temperature rise to under 2°C while trying to keep the increase to 1.5°C.
Estimations on Threshold Reaches
The IPCC previously estimated that the 1.5°C could be reached as early as the 2030s under any emission scenario. This new study, however, suggests that we’re already on the brink of crossing the 1.5°C threshold. The 1.5°C threshold is projected to be reached between 2033 and 2035 under high, intermediate, and low forcing scenarios. On the other hand, the 2°C threshold could potentially be met by 2050 under the high-emission scenario, and between 2049 and 2054 under the intermediate and low-emission scenarios respectively.
The Importance of Limiting Global Warming
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is crucial as it can reduce the number of individuals exposed to extreme heat waves by approximately 420 million. It also aids in decreasing the likelihood of droughts and risks associated with water availability.
Possible Implications of Exceeding the Threshold
If we exceed the 1.5°C threshold, numerous climate risks could ensue. These could involve impacts on human health, economies, crop production, coastal communities, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and an increase in the frequency and cost of extreme weather events.
Understanding Artificial Neural Networks
Artificial Neural Networks are a critical subset of machine learning used by computer scientists to perform complex tasks such as strategizing, making predictions, and identifying trends. Designed to mimic the human brain’s functions, ANN helps analyze and process information effectively.
The Paris Agreement: A Recap
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, UNFCCC member nations aimed to limit greenhouse gas emissions to ensure that the average global temperature rise by the end of the century doesn’t exceed 2ºC or potentially 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels. Developed countries recognized their historical responsibility for global warming and committed to donating $1000 billion annually from 2020 to assist developing countries in addressing climate change.
UPSC Civil Services Examination
Past question papers from the civil services examination contained questions related to global warming, its impact on coral life systems, how climate change will affect India and its Himalayan and coastal states, and control measures for reducing greenhouse gases in line with the Kyoto Protocol.
Researchers are continuing to use ANN and other technologies to further understand global warming’s implications and potential prevention methods.
