In recent news, the Taliban has taken control of Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital city. This alarming development has brought into question the effectiveness and reliability of the Afghan Forces, trained by the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Asserting their hold over the region, the Taliban have announced that they do not plan to conduct a witch hunt and are committed to respecting a transitional process. Further, they have expressed their intention to work towards an Islamic system that is universally acceptable.
The Emergence and Influence of the Taliban
The Taliban, meaning ‘students’ in Pashto language, emerged in northern Pakistan in the early 1990s following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan. They represent an Islamic fundamentalist political and military outfit in Afghanistan and have exercised considerable dominance over Afghan politics for some time. For almost two decades, the Taliban has been combating the U.S.-backed government in Kabul, aspiring to reestablish their strict interpretation of Islam in Afghanistan.
Background: Notable Points
A series of pivotal events triggered turmoil on a global level. These include the devastating terrorist attacks in America on September 11, 2001, which resulted in the deaths of nearly 3,000 people. As a direct response, the U.S. launched airstrikes against Afghanistan (Operation Enduring Freedom) the following month. Consequently, NATO coalition troops declared war on Afghanistan.
Subsequently, the U.S. ousted the Taliban regime and established a transitional government in Afghanistan, having concluded that the war was unwinnable. This led to peace talks with the Taliban.
Peace Talks and the U.S. Exit
In 2015, the U.S. participated in the first-ever meeting between the Taliban and the Afghan government, hosted by Pakistan in Murree. Despite these initiatives, the peace talks did not result in a significant breakthrough.
In 2020, prior to the Doha Talks, the Taliban stated they would engage in direct interactions only with the U.S., refusing to acknowledge the Kabul government. A subsequent agreement entailed U.S.’s promise of withdrawing all American troops from Afghanistan by May 1, 2021. Although this deadline was eventually pushed back to September 11, 2021, it gave the Taliban a perceived triumph and deflated the morale of Afghan troops.
By July 2021, the U.S. declared that it had evacuated 90% of its troops, while the Taliban claimed dominion over 85% of the Afghan territory.
The Current Scenario
The Taliban has now seized control over Kabul, causing many ministers and the former President to flee the country. This marks the first time Taliban fighters have entered the city since their ouster 20 years ago following the 9/11 attacks. Consequently, numerous evacuation missions have been initiated.
The Reasons behind the Capitulation
Several factors culminated in the current situation. The U.S.’s decision to unconditionally withdraw its troops, Afghan’s psychological denial of U.S.’s departure, a lack of a coherent military strategy, inadequate supplies and logistics, long-standing unpaid salaries, and a sense of betrayal and demoralisation all contributed to the capitulation. Additionally, the Afghan army was caught off guard by the Taliban offensive due to their unpreparedness and lack of training.
The Role of the U.S. in the Current Situation
Despite investing substantially in the War on Terror, the U.S. did not contribute enough to defend Afghanistan. Furthermore, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. did not regard Afghanistan as strategically significant. Moreover, despite being aware of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth and investing USD 1 trillion, the U.S. did not invest adequately in the Afghan economy.
Implications for India
The current situation has significant implications for India, with immediate concerns for Indian diplomats, personnel, and citizens based in Afghanistan. The control of the Taliban implies a stronger influence of Pakistani military and intelligence agencies over the country, reducing India’s engagement in developmental and infrastructural work. Additionally, the risk of increasing radicalisation and space for pan-Islamic terror groups in India’s neighborhood presents a threat.
Potential Way Forward
India could opt to support only a democratically-elected government in Kabul while offering political and humanitarian aid. Learning from the experience of the U.S.-Taliban talks, India could initiate discussions with the Taliban regarding the future of Afghanistan. To facilitate this, the appointment of a special envoy and the initiation of Track II diplomacy with the Taliban could be considered. Additionally, India should expedite emergency visas and evacuation for those associated with India who are under threat.
