Transnistria, a small breakaway region of Moldova, is at risk of becoming embroiled in the Russia-Ukraine War which has now continued over two months. Found between Moldova to its west and Ukraine to its east, this de facto state might become a significant player in this ongoing conflict.
Historical Overview of Transnistria
Transnistria, often referred to as a “relic of the Soviet Union,” declared its independence shortly after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, similar to Moldova. Russian soldiers stationed in Transnistria helped the region resist takeover attempts by Moldovan troops from 1990-1992. From that point onwards, the region has stayed out of Moldova’s control.
Despite its independence claim, most countries, including Russia, still recognize Transnistria as part of Moldova. The majority of Transnistrians hold dual or triple citizenships, of Russia and Transnistria, or of Moldova, Transnistria, and Russia. The region relies heavily on Russia for financial aid and free gas. Transnistria also has its own pro-Russian government, parliament, armed force, constitution, flag, and anthem. A referendum conducted in 2006 showed overwhelming support (over 97% voted) for future integration with Russia and post-Crimea annexation, Transnistrian authorities even inquired about possible absorption into Russia.
Strategic Importance of Transnistria for Russia
Given its strategic location, Transnistria plays a crucial role in Russia’s war strategy against Ukraine. Concerns are mounting in the West and in Ukraine that Transnistria may serve as a launching pad for conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Russia could potentially use Transnistria to sever Ukraine’s southwestern corner, leading to direct Russian intervention in Moldova.
If Russia gains control over Transnistria, it would allow the creation of a Russian-dominated corridor along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. Should Russia successfully link the Black Sea port of Odessa with Transnistria, the rest of Ukraine could become entirely landlocked.
Moldova, on its side, is apprehensive that Russia may exploit Transnistria as a base for launching an attack on it, given Russia’s long-standing desire to have Moldova within its sphere of influence. Moldova, not being a member of the European Union or North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), has slim chances of NATO stepping in to aid, particularly since NATO precludes membership to countries involved in border disputes with other nations.
