Tropical Cyclones – Trends and Recent Events

Tropical cyclones are among the most destructive natural disasters. Their impacts are particularly severe in coastal regions. The North Indian Ocean, while having fewer cyclones than other areas, is still vulnerable. The Bhola cyclone of 1970 remains the deadliest cyclone recorded. Recent trends indicate changes in cyclone patterns, intensity, and frequency, necessitating adaptive measures.

Current Trends in Cyclone Activity

The Bay of Bengal experiences more tropical cyclones than the Arabian Sea. However, recent years have shown a 52% increase in cyclonic storms in the

Answer Hints:

1. What are the key factors contributing to the increasing intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean?

1. Rising ocean heat content enhances cyclone energy and intensity.
2. Decreasing vertical wind shear allows storms to strengthen more easily.
3. Climate change is projected to further increase cyclone power and precipitation rates.
4. Recent data shows rise in cyclonic storms, particularly in the Arabian Sea.
5. Environmental factors like above-normal sea surface temperatures influence cyclone formation.

2. How did Cyclone Fengal’s trajectory and impact differ from typical cyclones?

1. Fengal stalled upon reaching the coast, maintaining intensity longer than usual.
2. Unprecedented rainfall occurred, with some areas receiving 40-50 cm in a single day.
3. The cyclone’s unusual north-eastward movement was not accurately predicted.
4. Abundant moisture from saturated soils contributed to the extreme rainfall.
5. Fengal’s landfall near Puducherry was forecasted accurately, but its behavior posed challenges.

3. What challenges do meteorologists face in accurately predicting tropical cyclone behavior and rainfall?

1. Complex cloud dynamics within cyclones make forecasting difficult.
2. Limitations in observational data over oceans hinder accurate predictions.
3. Weather models often struggle with predicting heavy rainfall during landfall.
4. Rapid intensification of cyclones is hard to forecast accurately.
5. Continuous advancements in modeling techniques and real-time data assimilation are necessary.

4. What lessons can be drawn from the recent cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean for future preparedness?

1. Investments in advanced forecasting technologies are crucial for better predictions.
2. Research into cyclone intensity and heavy rainfall forecasting needs to be prioritized.
3. Effective disaster mitigation measures can minimize loss of life and property.
4. About environmental factors influencing cyclone behavior is essential for adaptation.
5. Community preparedness and awareness programs can enhance resilience against cyclones.

5. How did the India Meteorological Department (IMD) perform in forecasting Cyclone Fengal, and what were the limitations?

1. IMD accurately predicted the landfall near Puducherry three days in advance.
2. Challenges included the cyclone’s unconventional track and slow progression.
3. Heavy rainfall associated with Fengal was not accurately predicted by models.
4. Forecasting limitations were brought into light by the failure to predict extreme rainfall totals.
5. Continuous improvements in forecasting methods are essential for future accuracy.