During his keynote address at the Goa Maritime Conclave, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh referred to the concept of “Prisoner’s Dilemma” to highlight the importance of countries collaborating rather than working against each other in international relations. This concept, derived from Game Theory, is a valuable tool for analyzing strategic decision-making challenges in international relations and finding solutions that promote cooperation and trust.
What is “Prisoner’s Dilemma”?
“Prisoner’s Dilemma” is a well-known game in Game Theory, a field that studies how individuals or entities behave under different circumstances. It also explores how to achieve the best possible outcomes. In real life, decisions are complex, and the outcome depends on the actions of others. The concept of “Prisoner’s Dilemma” helps illustrate this complexity.
The Dilemma in “Prisoner’s Dilemma”
Imagine two individuals, A and B, questioned about a crime they are suspected of committing. The evidence is circumstantial, and the authorities can only secure a one-year jail sentence for each if no one confesses. However, they can potentially obtain a 15-year jail term for one of them by getting them to implicate the other.
The prisoners face a dilemma:
- If one confesses, implicating the other, they go free while the other serves 15 years.
- If both stay silent, they both serve one year.
- If both confess, they both serve 10 years.
The Dilemma’s Paradox
On the surface, staying silent seems like the rational choice because it results in the best outcome, both serving one year in prison. However, there’s a catch. Each prisoner cannot be certain that the other won’t confess and implicate them. If one stays silent, they risk facing the maximum prison term of 15 years.
As a result, if both prisoners are uncertain about the other’s behavior, confessing becomes the logical choice. Paradoxically, confessing is the safer option when there is no certainty about the other prisoner’s choice.
The Importance of Cooperation
The best possible outcome in the “Prisoner’s Dilemma” occurs when both prisoners cooperate by staying silent. In this case, they both serve just one year in prison. This dilemma and its solutions have real-life applications, not only in international law but also in business.
Applications in Business
For example, in the business world, it can be applied to two companies selling similar products, like ice cream. These companies may continuously reduce prices to outcompete each other for market share. However, repeated price reductions could lead to unsustainable prices and economic challenges. Instead, cooperating by agreeing on a minimum price may lead to healthier profits for both.
Applications in International Relations
In international relations, countries face similar challenges. Instead of engaging in an arms race that could harm their economies and people, cooperation through diplomatic agreements can ensure stable geopolitics.
