The latest release of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)’s Emissions Gap Report 2020 has brought to light a number of pressing issues regarding global emission levels. The annual report is designed to measure the disparity between projected emissions and the threshold stipulated by the Paris Agreement which aims to limit global warming this century to well below 2°C, and ideally curtail it at 1.5°C.
Key Insights from the 2019 Report
The Emissions Gap Report revealed that, for the third year in a row, global GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emissions climbed, reaching a record high of 52.4 Gigatonne of carbon equivalent (GtCO2e), excluding land use changes (LUC). Some evidence suggests the rise in global GHG emissions may be decelerating, meanwhile, GHG emissions are decreasing in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) economies but increasing in non-OECD economies.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and carbonates make up the majority of total GHG emissions. In 2019, these reached a record 38.0 GtCO2. Alarmingly, since 2010, global GHG emissions have been increasing at an average rate of 1.4% per annum, with a 2.6% spike in 2019 due to a substantial rise in forest fires.
G20 Countries and Emissions
The report highlighted that over the last ten years, the top four emitters, namely China, the USA, EU27+UK, and India, have been responsible for 55% of total GHG emissions without LUC. Adding into this the Russian Federation, Japan, and international transport brings the contribution to 65%, while G20 members account for 78%.
However, the picture changes when considering per capita emissions. Wealthier countries generally have higher consumption-based emissions (those allocated to the country where goods are purchased and consumed, as opposed to where they are produced) as they typically maintain cleaner production, more services, and higher imports of primary and secondary products.
Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Emissions
The report suggests that as a direct impact of the pandemic, CO2 emissions could decrease by approximately 7% in 2020 compared to 2019 emission levels, with a smaller decline predicted in GHG emissions as non-CO2 is likely to be less affected. However, atmospheric concentrations of GHGs such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) continued to rise in both 2019 and 2020.
The transport sector saw the greatest reduction in emissions due to pandemic-induced restrictions on mobility. Nevertheless, reductions were also recorded across other sectors.
Issues Addressed and Possible Remedies
The report cautions that despite efforts, we are still on course for a temperature increase exceeding 3°C this century, an eventuality that could trigger catastrophic weather-related events globally. This makes it clear that the objectives set out in the Paris Agreement must be multiplied about threefold to attain the 2°C pathway and at least five times for the 1.5°C Pathway.
UN experts propose a green recovery strategy for nations grappling with economic downturns due to COVID-19. Such plans would involve investing in zero-emission technologies and infrastructure, reducing fossil fuel subsidies, halting the construction of new coal plants, and promoting nature-based solutions. According to the UN, these steps could decrease predicted emissions by 25% by 2030, giving the planet a 66% chance of maintaining warming below the 2° mark set as a long-term goal by the Paris Agreement.
About the United Nations Environment Programme
Established on June 5, 1972, the UNEP is a leading global environmental authority. Its role involves setting the global environmental agenda, advocating for sustainable development within the United Nations system, and serving as an authoritative advocate for the protection of the global environment. Major campaigns include Beat Pollution, UN75, World Environment Day, and Wild for Life. It is headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya.