Urgent Call to Limit Carbon Emissions

The 2024 Global Carbon Budget report reveals alarming projections regarding carbon dioxide emissions. The world has only six years left to manage its carbon budget effectively to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Current emissions are higher than pre-industrial levels. The implications of this report are dire for global climate policy and action.

About Carbon Budgets

A carbon budget indicates the total amount of CO₂ that can be emitted while keeping global temperatures within specific limits. To maintain a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, the remaining carbon budget is critically low. Projections suggest that budgets for 1.7°C and 2°C will be exhausted in 14 and 27 years, respectively, if emissions continue unabated.

Current Emissions Status

Recently, CO₂ emissions are expected to reach 11.3 gigatonnes per year. This marks a 52% increase compared to pre-industrial levels. Fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 0.8% from 2023, with coal, oil, and gas emissions increasing as well. While emissions in the US and Europe are declining, they remain important.

Land-Use Change and Deforestation

Land-use changes contribute notably to carbon emissions. Deforestation accounts for a substantial portion of emissions, with Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo being major contributors. Although emissions from land-use changes have decreased overall, 2024 may see a rise due to factors like El Niño.

Carbon Sinks and Their Role

Carbon sinks, such as oceans and forests, absorb more CO₂ than they release. The ocean sink is expected to show slight increases in absorption due to current climatic conditions. However, technological solutions for capturing CO₂ emissions are minimal compared to the total emissions produced.

The Importance of Nitrous Oxide Management

Experts highlight that addressing nitrous oxide emissions is crucial for meeting climate targets. Agriculture is the primary source of these emissions. Strategies to reduce nitrous oxide can lead to important climate benefits and improvements in public health. Current abatement measures can reduce emissions by over 40%.

Global Commitment and Future Actions

At COP29, world leaders recognised the urgency of transitioning away from fossil fuels. The need for rapid and deep cuts in emissions is critical to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The future of global climate health depends on immediate and coordinated action.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically analyse the role of carbon budgets in global climate policy.
2. What are the implications of rising nitrous oxide emissions for climate change? Explain.
3. Comment on the effectiveness of current strategies to reduce carbon emissions from land-use changes.
4. What is the significance of carbon sinks in mitigating climate change? How do they function?

Answer Hints:

1. Critically analyse the role of carbon budgets in global climate policy.

1. Carbon budgets quantify the maximum allowable CO₂ emissions to limit global warming to specific targets, guiding policy frameworks.
2. They provide a scientific basis for setting national and international climate goals, influencing negotiations like the Paris Agreement.
3. Monitoring carbon budgets helps track progress and accountability among nations in reducing emissions.
4. Failure to adhere to carbon budgets can lead to severe climate impacts, necessitating urgent policy interventions.
5. They encourage sustainable practices and investments in renewable energy by establishing clear limits on fossil fuel use.

2. What are the implications of rising nitrous oxide emissions for climate change? Explain.

1. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas, contributing to global warming, with a warming potential 270 times greater than CO₂.
2. Current emissions trends indicate a 20% increase since the pre-industrial era, exacerbating climate change effects.
3. N2O emissions primarily stem from agriculture, suggesting that agricultural practices need urgent reform to mitigate its impact.
4. Addressing N2O emissions could lead to a potential reduction in global warming by 0.1°C by 2100, denoting its importance in climate strategies.
5. N2O is also a major ozone-depleting substance, posing risks to human health and biodiversity, necessitating comprehensive abatement measures.

3. Comment on the effectiveness of current strategies to reduce carbon emissions from land-use changes.

1. Current strategies have led to a 20% decrease in land-use emissions over the past decade, indicating some effectiveness.
2. However, 2024 projections suggest a potential rise in emissions due to factors like deforestation and El Niño effects.
3. Major contributors to land-use emissions include Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, necessitating targeted international cooperation.
4. Technological advancements in sustainable agriculture and reforestation can enhance current strategies but require important investment.
5. Addressing global demand for commodities driving deforestation is crucial for long-term effectiveness in reducing emissions.

4. What is the significance of carbon sinks in mitigating climate change? How do they function?

1. Carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, absorb more CO₂ than they emit, playing important role in balancing atmospheric carbon levels.
2. They help mitigate climate change by sequestering carbon, thus reducing the overall concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
3. The ocean sink is projected to increase its absorption capacity, which can help offset some emissions from human activities.
4. Forests act as important carbon sinks, but their effectiveness is threatened by deforestation and land-use changes.
5. Enhancing carbon sink capacity through afforestation and sustainable land management can contribute to climate change mitigation efforts.