US-China Relations and Hong Kong’s Mediating Role

Recent developments in 2025 show the fragile yet crucial relationship between the United States and China. The sixth China-United States Exchange Foundation (CUSEF) meeting in Hong Kong brought these tensions and ties into sharp focus. Despite rivalry and mistrust, the two powers remain deeply interconnected. Hong Kong’s unique position as a global crossroads offers a vital space for dialogue amid growing strategic anxieties.

Current State of US-China Relations

The US and China face a complex rivalry marked by diminished trust and heightened suspicion. Traditional approaches like managed competition and engagement no longer suffice. Both countries prepare for sudden shocks, with public discourse reflecting deep strategic fears. The decline in educational exchanges has reduced direct people-to-people contact, widening generational gaps shaped by fear rather than experience.

Technology and Artificial Intelligence

AI emerged as a central issue, seen as an international public good too important to be controlled by one nation. Discussions emphasised the need for governance based on fairness, openness, and accountability. Concerns were raised about blurred lines between civilian tech innovation and military uses, especially in private sectors. The forum called for global frameworks to regulate AI and potentially space activities, anticipating future competition beyond Earth.

Geopolitical Tensions and Taiwan

Taiwan remains a flashpoint, with China warning against US policies that appear to support Taiwanese independence. Militarisation of the issue risks escalating conflict. Participants stressed the urgent need for new diplomatic tools and crisis-prevention mechanisms insulated from political shifts. Historical incidents like the 2001 EP-3 collision tell the dangers of accidental escalation in the region.

Hong Kong’s Strategic Importance

Hong Kong serves as a symbolic and practical middle ground. Its cosmopolitan nature and connectivity allow it to bridge divides even as it grows more China-centric. The city’s role in sustaining people-to-people ties offers hope amid official tensions. Hong Kong exemplifies how spaces between powers remain essential for dialogue and understanding.

Implications for India

India faces a complex choice in navigating US-China rivalry. It cannot control great-power dynamics but can strengthen its own technological, economic, and institutional capabilities. Avoiding rigid binaries is key to maintaining strategic autonomy. India must encourage steady engagement beyond rhetoric, emphasising youth and cultural links as foundations for future diplomacy.

The Future Global Order

The US-China relationship will remain turbulent and unlikely to return to past norms. The alternative to rivalry is not victory but cooperation on shared challenges like climate change, health, finance, and AI governance. The emerging order depends on practical collaboration rather than ideological battles. The global community must manage risks collectively to ensure stability and survival.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically analyse the impact of US-China rivalry on global geopolitical stability and economic interdependence with suitable examples.
2. Explain the challenges and opportunities of governing emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence at the international level.
3. What are the strategic implications of the Taiwan issue for regional security in the Indo-Pacific? How can crisis-prevention mechanisms reduce the risk of conflict?
4. Comment on the role of middle powers like India in maintaining strategic autonomy amidst great-power competition. What strategies should India adopt to safeguard its interests?

Answer Hints:

1. Critically analyse the impact of US-China rivalry on global geopolitical stability and economic interdependence with suitable examples.

1. US-China rivalry has increased global strategic anxieties, reducing trust and increasing risk of sudden shocks.
2. Traditional engagement frameworks like managed competition no longer suffice, leading to more rigid geopolitical blocs.
3. Economic interdependence remains high, but tensions disrupt supply chains and global markets (e.g., trade tariffs, tech restrictions).
4. Decline in people-to-people exchanges (student flows down) deepens mistrust and generational gaps.
5. Regional flashpoints (South China Sea, Taiwan) exacerbate instability, risking military escalation.
6. Global challenges (climate, pandemics) suffer as rivalry hampers coordinated responses, increasing cascading risks.

2. Explain the challenges and opportunities of governing emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence at the international level.

1. AI is increasingly viewed as an international public good, requiring shared governance beyond national monopolies.
2. Challenges include balancing civilian innovation with military applications, especially in private sectors.
3. Need for governance principles based on equity, transparency, and accountability to build trust among nations.
4. Opportunities lie in collaborative frameworks that manage risks while encouraging innovation and ethical use.
5. Potential to extend governance models to new domains like space to prevent conflict in emerging arenas.
6. International cooperation on AI can mitigate risks of misuse, bias, and uncontrolled escalation in global tech race.

3. What are the strategic implications of the Taiwan issue for regional security in the Indo-Pacific? How can crisis-prevention mechanisms reduce the risk of conflict?

1. Taiwan is a core flashpoint, with China opposing perceived US support for Taiwanese independence, raising military tensions.
2. Militarisation of Taiwan issue increases risk of accidental or deliberate conflict in a highly sensitive region.
3. Historical incidents like the 2001 EP-3 collision show dangers of accidental escalation between US and China.
4. Regional security depends on new diplomatic vocabularies and mechanisms insulated from political swings to prevent crises.
5. Crisis-prevention tools (hotlines, communication protocols, confidence-building measures) can de-escalate incidents quickly.
6. Reducing militarisation and encouraging dialogue can prevent the Taiwan issue from hardening into default confrontation.

4. Comment on the role of middle powers like India in maintaining strategic autonomy amidst great-power competition. What strategies should India adopt to safeguard its interests?

1. India cannot control US-China rivalry but must navigate it by building domestic technological, economic, and institutional strength.
2. Rigid binaries (choosing one side) are unsustainable; India must maintain strategic autonomy and flexibility.
3. India should avoid adopting US rhetoric or Chinese narratives uncritically, crafting independent policies.
4. Strengthening youth engagement, cultural ties, and steady people-to-people contacts can underpin long-term diplomacy.
5. Focus on multi-alignment, economic resilience, and technological self-reliance to safeguard national interests.
6. India’s role includes promoting responsible global order and cooperation on shared challenges beyond great-power rivalry.