The United States is preparing for a major overhaul of its H-1B work visa regime, a move that could disproportionately affect applicants from India. By scrapping the lottery-based allocation system and replacing it with a weighted model favouring higher wages and skills, the US administration under Donald Trump has signalled a decisive shift in how foreign talent is selected. For thousands of Indian professionals—especially early-career workers—this marks a fundamental change in access to the American labour market.
What Is Changing in the H-1B System?
For decades, H-1B visas have been allocated through a random lottery whenever applications exceeded the annual cap. This mechanism will now be replaced by a weighted selection process. Under the new rules, applications offering higher wages and demonstrating higher skill levels will be prioritised, while lower-paid or entry-level roles will face sharply reduced odds.
The changes have been notified by the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services and will take effect from February 27, 2026, applying to the FY 2027 H-1B cap registration cycle.
Scale of the Impact: Numbers That Matter
Each year, around 85,000 new H-1B visas are issued—65,000 under the general category and an additional 20,000 reserved for applicants with a US master’s degree or higher. Indians account for a dominant share of these visas, particularly in the technology, engineering, and consulting sectors.
With the weighted model, the numerical cap remains unchanged, but the distribution within it will alter significantly, favouring senior, high-salary profiles over younger graduates.
Why the US Is Making This Shift
According to the US Department of Homeland Security, the lottery system was vulnerable to misuse. Officials argue that some employers used it to hire foreign workers at wages lower than those paid to American employees. The new framework is projected as a labour market correction, aligning immigration policy with wage protection and domestic employment priorities.
This change is part of a broader reorientation of US immigration towards “value-based” entry rather than volume-based selection.
Implications for Indian Professionals
Indian applicants are likely to feel the sharpest impact because of their heavy presence in entry- and mid-level H-1B applications. Fresh graduates, early-career IT professionals, and employees of outsourcing firms may find it much harder to qualify.
In contrast, highly experienced professionals with niche skills and higher salaries—often in advanced technology or management roles—could benefit from the new weighting system.
Linked Moves: Fees and ‘Gold Card’ Visas
The overhaul does not stand alone. The administration has also introduced a controversial $100,000 annual fee per H-1B visa, currently under judicial scrutiny. Alongside this, a $1 million “gold card” visa has been proposed, offering wealthy individuals a pathway to US citizenship.
Together, these measures underline a clear policy direction: privileging capital, high wages, and elite skills over mass skilled migration.
Broader Implications for India–US Talent Flows
The changes may prompt Indian students and professionals to reassess the US as a destination, potentially redirecting talent towards other economies such as Canada, Europe, or Australia. For Indian IT firms, the cost and uncertainty of staffing US projects could increase, with implications for outsourcing models.
At a strategic level, the shift also raises questions about global competition for skilled labour and the future of mobility in an era of economic nationalism.
What to Note for Prelims?
- H-1B visas allow US employers to hire foreign skilled workers.
- Annual cap: 65,000 regular + 20,000 for US master’s degree holders.
- New weighted system replaces the lottery from FY 2027.
- USCIS administers the H-1B programme.
What to Note for Mains?
- Shift from lottery-based to merit- and wage-based immigration.
- Impact on Indian skilled migration and IT services sector.
- Link between immigration policy and domestic labour protection.
- Implications for global mobility of skilled professionals.
