Reports from US intelligence indicate escalating tensions on the Russia-Ukraine border, signaling a significant security crisis for the region. This situation has the potential to spiral into a wider conflict, with Ukraine asserting that Russia has congregated approximately 90,000 troops at the border.
Background: The Close Ties of Ukraine and Russia
Ukraine’s relationship with Russia spans centuries, deeply rooted in shared cultural, linguistic, and familial ties, thus making it an emotional issue for people on both sides. As part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine stood as the second most influential Soviet republic after Russia, playing a vital role strategically, economically, and culturally.
The Cause of Conflict: A Fight for Balance of Power
The tussle for power began when Ukraine declared independence from the Soviet Union. Both Russia and the West have since attempted to exert influence over Ukraine to maintain the balance of power. For the US and the European Union, Ukraine is a critical buffer zone between Russia and the West.
Russian Interest in the Black Sea Region
Russia’s geographic advantage in the Black Sea region lends itself to several geopolitical benefits. Being an important crossroads and strategic intersection for the entire region, access to the Black Sea is essential for all neighboring states, enhancing the projection of power into several regions. Furthermore, this region is a key transit corridor for goods and energy.
Protests in Ukraine: The Euromaidan Movement and the Separatist Movement
Public protests broke out in Ukraine in November 2013, known as the Euromaidan movement, following the government’s decision to suspend an association agreement with the EU in favor of closer ties with Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. In addition, the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine has been dealing with a pro-Russian separatist movement since 2014, which allegedly receives active support from the Russian government.
Annexation of Crimea: A Shift in Maritime Power
Russia’s seizure of Crimea from Ukraine marked the first European territory annexation since World War II. This event drastically boosted Russia’s maritime dominance in the region, significantly changing the regional dynamics.
Ukraine and NATO Membership
Ukraine has called for fast-tracked membership into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a move Russia sees as crossing a “red line” due to fears of the US-led military alliance expanding up to its borders. Consequently, the Black Sea region, bordered by NATO countries and Russia, has become a potential maritime flashpoint.
Minsk Agreements: Attempts at Peace
The Minsk agreements, signed in 2014 and 2015, were designed to end fighting in rebel regions and restore border control to Ukraine’s national troops. However, these agreements have been violated by both sides leading to ongoing conflict.
India’s Stand on the Conflict
India opted to back long-time ally Russia in the conflict, choosing not to join the Western powers condemning Russia’s intervention in Crimea. India even supported Russia by voting against a UN resolution that criticized human rights violations in Crimea.
The Black Sea: A Key Geographic Region
The Black Sea, located between Eastern Europe and Western Asia, is surrounded by the Pontic, Caucasus, and Crimean Mountains. It connects to the Sea of Azov through the Strait of Kerch and the Mediterranean Sea via the Turkish straits system.
Looking Ahead: The Way Forward
A practical solution to the escalating situation is the revival of the Minsk peace process. As such, the West should encourage both sides to resume talks and stick to their commitments under the Minsk agreement to reestablish relative peace on the border.
