US Nuclear Testing Resumption and India’s Strategic Challenge

The announcement by US President Donald Trump in 2025 to resume nuclear weapons testing has revived global concerns. This marks the first US nuclear test since 1992. The decision comes amid rising geopolitical tensions and ahead of a key meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The move could disrupt the informal global moratorium on nuclear testing and affect international arms control efforts. For India, this shift presents both challenges and strategic opportunities.

US Resumption of Nuclear Testing

The US has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear tests since 1992. President Trump’s declaration signals a possible end to this pause. The exact nature of the planned tests remains unclear. Some US officials argue that testing is essential to maintain nuclear superiority over Russia and China. The decision risks destabilising the global non-proliferation regime and could trigger other nations to reconsider their nuclear policies.

India’s Nuclear Arsenal and Test History

India conducted nuclear tests in 1998, known as Pokhran II, including a thermonuclear device. However, key scientific assessments reveal that the thermonuclear test was not fully successful. Reports from Indian Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and intelligence agencies indicated the thermonuclear device yielded far less than expected. Despite this, official Indian policy has upheld the tests as successful for political and diplomatic reasons.

Thermonuclear Weapon Significance

Thermonuclear weapons are vastly more powerful than atomic bombs. They rely on a two-stage process – a nuclear fission trigger followed by fusion. Such weapons can produce yields in hundreds of kilotons or megatons, capable of destroying entire cities. For India, possessing reliable thermonuclear weapons is critical to its nuclear doctrine, which promises massive retaliation in case of a first strike.

India’s Nuclear Doctrine and Deterrence

India’s nuclear policy is based on a no-first-use pledge, meaning nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation. This doctrine demands credible second-strike capability. To deter adversaries like China and Pakistan, India must have thermonuclear weapons that work effectively. Currently, India’s arsenal of about 150 nuclear weapons lacks the confirmed thermonuclear strength to assure this deterrence fully.

Geopolitical and Strategic Implications

The US decision to resume testing puts pressure on India to reconsider its own moratorium. India had agreed to a unilateral testing pause partly to maintain cooperation with the US under the 123 Agreement and the Hyde Act. However, growing threats from China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and Pakistan’s parity mean India may need to upgrade its nuclear capabilities. A renewed Indian testing programme could alter regional security dynamics .

Global Arms Control and Treaty Challenges

Neither the US nor India has signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), but both observe moratoriums. The US retains the legal authority to resume testing, which it now appears ready to exercise. This development could weaken the global norm against nuclear tests and encourage other nuclear states to follow suit. The future of arms control treaties and non-proliferation efforts faces uncertainty.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically discuss the impact of nuclear weapons testing on global non-proliferation efforts with examples from the US and India.
2. Analyse India’s nuclear doctrine of no-first-use in the light of evolving regional security threats from China and Pakistan.
3. Examine the significance of thermonuclear weapons in strategic deterrence and the challenges in developing such weapons.
4. Discuss the role of international treaties like the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in maintaining global nuclear stability and the consequences of their non-ratification.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically discuss the impact of nuclear weapons testing on global non-proliferation efforts with examples from the US and India.

1. Nuclear testing breaks informal or formal moratoriums, undermining global non-proliferation norms.
2. US resumption of testing after 1992 risks triggering other nations to resume tests, weakening the test ban regime.
3. India’s 1998 tests ended its moratorium, leading to international sanctions but asserted strategic autonomy.
4. Testing signals nuclear capability and political resolve, influencing regional and global power dynamics.
5. Non-testing states may feel compelled to develop or test weapons to maintain credible deterrence.
6. Testing complicates arms control negotiations and delays universal treaty ratification like CTBT.

2. Analyse India’s nuclear doctrine of no-first-use in the light of evolving regional security threats from China and Pakistan.

1. No-first-use (NFU) pledges nuclear retaliation only after a nuclear attack, emphasizing defensive posture.
2. NFU requires credible second-strike capability, including reliable thermonuclear weapons for massive retaliation.
3. China’s expanding and modernizing arsenal challenges India’s deterrence credibility under NFU.
4. Pakistan’s nuclear parity and tactical nuclear weapons raise doubts about NFU’s effectiveness.
5. NFU limits India’s strategic options, potentially constraining pre-emptive or counterforce strategies.
6. Regional threats may push India to reconsider NFU or strengthen its arsenal and command control systems.

3. Examine the significance of thermonuclear weapons in strategic deterrence and the challenges in developing such weapons.

1. Thermonuclear weapons provide exponentially greater destructive power than fission bombs, essential for credible deterrence.
2. They enable massive retaliation capable of inflicting unacceptable damage on adversaries, deterring first strikes.
3. Development requires advanced scientific expertise, reliable two-stage design, and successful testing.
4. India’s 1998 thermonuclear test yielded below expectations, raising doubts about its operational readiness.
5. Challenges include technical complexity, political constraints (moratoriums), and international pressure against testing.
6. Possessing reliable thermonuclear weapons strengthens second-strike capability, vital under NFU doctrine.

4. Discuss the role of international treaties like the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in maintaining global nuclear stability and the consequences of their non-ratification.

1. CTBT aims to ban all nuclear explosions, reinforcing non-proliferation and arms control efforts globally.
2. It helps prevent qualitative improvements and new development of nuclear arsenals by banning tests.
3. Non-ratification by key states (US, China, Pakistan) weakens treaty’s universality and effectiveness.
4. Absence of CTBT enforcement risks resumption of tests, destabilizing strategic balance and arms race dynamics.
5. Without CTBT, verification regimes and confidence-building measures are harder to implement globally.
6. Non-ratification reflects national security concerns, technological ambitions, and geopolitical rivalries.