The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, has been a focal point of international politics in recent years. The recent decision by the United States to restore sanctions waivers to Iran, thereby allowing international participation in Iran’s civilian nuclear programme without triggering American sanctions, has once again brought this issue to the fore.
Understanding JCPOA
The JCPOA is an agreement reached between Iran and P5+1 countries (China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, and the US) in 2015 after lengthy negotiations which began in 2013. It followed secret talks between then-US President Barack Obama and Iran, facilitated by Oman, aimed at mending the deep-seated mistrust that had developed following the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979.
This revolution saw the end of the monarchy and the establishment of an Islamic republic in February 1979. Post the agreement, Iran agreed to limit its uranium enrichment programme, subject to rigorous inspections, in exchange for partial easing of economic sanctions.
Turbulent Timeline of the JCPOA
Despite the successful negotiations, Obama was unable to secure the ratification of the deal due to opposition from a hostile Republican Senate. Nevertheless, he implemented it through periodic Executive Orders to keep sanction waivers active.
In 2019 and 2020, then-President Donald Trump revoked these waivers, labeling the agreement as a “one-sided deal”. This move was met with widespread opposition as Iran was seen as complying with its obligations under the JCPOA, as validated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Despite promises of relief from France, Germany, the UK, and the European Union, Iran, facing increasing economic hardship, adopted a strategy of ‘maximum resistance’ to the imposed sanctions.
The Restoration of JCPOA and Its Impact on India
The reinstatement of the JCPOA has implications not only for the involved parties but also for other nations. India, in particular, stands to reap several benefits from its restoration.
To start with, it could boost regional connectivity through a potential revival of India’s interest in projects such as Chabahar Project and Bandar Abbas port. This could help counterbalance the Chinese presence in Pakistan’s Gwadar port. Besides, India’s participation in the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC), which passes through Iran and improves connectivity with Central Asian republics, could gain momentum.
Most importantly, it has considerable implications for India’s energy security. Currently, India has been compelled to drastically reduce oil imports due to the pressure associated with the US’ Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Restoration of diplomatic ties between the US and Iran could facilitate India’s acquisition of affordable Iranian oil, thereby bolstering its energy security.
The restoration of the JCPOA signifies a turning point in international relations, and its implications extend far beyond the primary parties involved. As evidenced by potential impacts on India, its reinstatement has the potential to redraw geopolitical alliances and influence global politics in ways yet to be fully grasped.